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negative. When implementing a pessimistic forecast, the reform by 2034 will reduce GDP by 2%. In both scenarios there is a zero real growth in wages. In addition, Raiffeisenbank did not calculate the possible effect on the economy of government spending, which can be used to save money saved on pensions, as well as indirect effects on the labor market.
4.5.3 Retail sector dynamics
Improvement in retail sales was another favourable effect of the FIFA World Cup. In June, retail sales growth recovered to 3.0% y/y, from 2.4% y/y in May. While the increase was supported by both the food and non-food categories, the contribution of food sales was more visible, as the turnover was +1.2pp higher than in May (3.2% y/y vs. 2.0% y/y). Food sales might have benefited from the inflow of tourists to Russia.
At the same time, the increase in non-food sales was marginal (2.9% y/y vs. 2.7% y/y). Non-food sales were less influenced by tourist purchases.
23 RUSSIA Country Report August 2018 www.intellinews.com