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Interfax-Ukraine reported, citing a court representative. The decision to postpone was owing to “pressure on the judges via mass media,” including articles and comments in social media, the source said. Recall, after a hearing on the case on March 16, the court decided to take a break for an indefinite period, later scheduling the next session for April 27. The Surkis family won court cases against the bail-in of its deposits (about UAH1.1bn) in first- and second-tier courts in 2017, while the bank and the government appealed such rulings to the Supreme Court. The court’s verdict is anticipated by an appellate court in Kyiv, which is hearing a complaint of former Privatbank owner Ihor Kolomoisky to recognize as illegal the decision of the government to declare the bank insolvent and nationalize it in December 2016.
Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) Head Ivan Bakanov is blocking a key investigation in one of the criminal cases being pursued by the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine on alleged money laundering from PrivatBank, ​former Prosecutor General Ruslan Riaboshapka said in a column published on April 23 on the pravda.com.ua news site. The preparation of the criminal case, which is of exceptional importance for Ukraine, can be quickly completed, he wrote. Yet the stalled investigation, which has been blocked for several months,” saves the organizers of a billion-hryvnia scheme from notices of suspicion” being issued by the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office, he wrote. Riaboshapka served as prosecutor general under President Zelenskiy between August 2019 and March 2020.
8.2 ​Central Bank policy rate
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) announced on April 23 that it cut its key policy rate by 2.0pp to 8.0%, citing its board's decision that day. ​The central bank is continuing its monetary softening cycle aiming to support the economy affected by the coronavirus pandemic and quarantine.
The NBU noted that consumer inflation cooled to 2.3% y/y in March, and the preliminary observations imply that inflation will stay low in April as well. The central bank expects consumer inflation to reach 6% YTD in 2020, meaning that it will stay in the target range of 4-6%. Government fiscal and monetary initiatives aiming to support business and individuals should counteract the drop in consumer demand.
The central bank downgraded its 2020 GDP forecast to a 5.0% y/y drop (vs. 4.0% y/y growth in January’s forecast). The negative impact of the pandemic on Ukraine’s economy will be relatively short-lasting but powerful, the NBU expects. The quarantine restrictions have already resulted in lower business activity, consumption and employment. The largest economic decline is expected in 2Q20 with a subsequent recovery in 2H20. The NBU forecasted the current account deficit at 1.7% of GDP in 2020 (vs. 3.2% of GDP in its previous forecast).
As previously, the key assumption of the NBU’s forecast is Ukraine's continued cooperation with the IMF. The updated forecast assumes that the first tranche of the IMF financing will be received in 2Q20. The central bank believes that this financing will help to cover the increased budget deficit, cover the peaks of debt repayments and finance the initiatives of business and consumer support. The IMF support, coupled with expected financing of other IFIs, will enable maintaining gross international reserves at $27-29bn in the mid-term.
44​ UKRAINE Country Report​ May 2020 ​ ​www.intellinews.com