Page 105 - RusRPTFeb21

9.1.1b​ Oil and gas sector news
Crude oil prices will grow by more than 20% in this year, according to the forecast presented in the January report of the International Monetary Fund (IMF)​ on global economic development prospects. Oil prices are expected to grow by more than 20% against the lower base level of 2020 but still be much lower than the 2019-year level, IMF says. Prices for other commodities are also expected to increase, with the strongest growth anticipated in 2021 for metals prices, IMF experts say.
According to the draft general plan for the development of the gas industry in Russia until 2035, oil prices will be in the range of $45 - 80 ​per barrel, Director of Oil Refining and Gas Processing Department of the Ministry of Energy Anton Rubtsov said on​ January 27
According to the general plan, domestic gas demand in Russia will be from 490 to 550bn cubic meters, production may exceed 1 trillion cubic meters. At the same time, reserves of explored gas reserves in Russia will greatly increase, they can range from 11.2 to 12.9mn tonnes of standard fuel. The share of LNG in the country's energy balance will grow to 26-32%.
Meanwhile, according to the optimistic scenario of the general plan, Russian gas exports to European countries, including the Baltic countries, will grow by 9.5% by 2035 compared to 2019, to 212.8bn cubic meters. In the pessimistic scenario, exports will decline by 11.1% - to 172.8bn cubic meters.
"In 2035, the volume of Russian natural gas supplies through pipelines to Europe (including the Baltic countries), compared to the level of 2019, according to the average scenario, will increase by 1.8% - to 197.8bn cubic meters. Under the high scenario, Russian pipeline gas supplies to Europe will increase by 9.5% compared to the level of 2019 - to 212.8bn cubic meters. In the low scenario, the volume of pipeline gas supplies to the region will decrease by 11.1% - to 172.8bn cubic meters," the report said.
At the same time, the price of Russian gas supplied for export in 2025 will range from $146 to $211 per 1,000 cubic meters. In particular, the worst-case scenario assumes a surplus of gas in the European market and average oil prices. For this reason, the average export prices in this case will be $146 per 1,000 cubic meters in 2025 and $163 per 1,000 cubic meters in 2035. In the average scenario, gas prices are expected at $163 and $193 per 1,000 cubic meters in 2025 and 2035, respectively.
Meanwhile, the total income of the budgets of the Russian Federation of all levels from the gas industry from 2021 to 2035 will be from 37.1 trillion rubles ($490.5bn) up to 54.3 trillion rubles ($717.99bn), according to the plan.
105 ​RUSSIA Country Report​ February 2021 www.intellinews.com