Page 126 - RusRPTFeb21

domestic flights). Consequently, the PAX load factor fell 2ppts y/y to 74.4% (-9.6ppts y/y to 65.1% for international flights and -2.1ppts to 76.9% for domestic flights). The 4Q20 results were 12.3% below our expectations for PAX turnover and 5.8ppts weaker in terms of capacity utilization. We see the results as leading to downside risks to our 4Q20 IFRS forecast, which currently sees the top line declining 50.9% to RUB75.6bn, EBITDA dropping 54.6% to RUB12.4bn and net loss increasing 2.9x to RUB19.5bn. We see that the new COVID-19 restrictions have had a negative impact on Aeroflot’s international business, and we expect downgrades in financial forecasts for AFLT.
Russian low-cost airline Pobeda attained a RUB1.4bn ruble net profit in 2020, ​the company said in a statement on Wednesday. "Even during the heaviest crisis in the history of world aviation, Pobeda managed to have a positive financial result, earning 1.4bn of net profit and kept the average flight loading in 2020 at the virtually pre-crisis level of 92%," the statement read.
9.2.4 ​Construction & Real estate corporate news
PIK​ has released strong 4Q20 operational results, with 32% y/y growth in residential volumes (45% y/y with fee development). ​This was 5% above our forecast, and meant the annual figure set a new record. The blended price was 24% y/y higher in 4Q20, allowing ruble sales to surge 59% y/y to RUB107bn (up 79% y/y to RUB131 with FD). PIK annual cash collections were 30% higher y/y, at RUB371bn (matching our revenue forecast), and received a 26% contribution from services outside own development. For 2021, the company guides 20-30% y/y growth in RUBresidential sales, which it expects to come from prices (CPI + 4-5% y/y), further growth in FD, and an improving mix in Moscow. This places upside risks to our model, which factors in flat performance from an elevated base. PIK stock has gained 11% in the last month. It now demands 1.1x P/NAV, and we think the company has the most efficient and rapid sectoral profile.
· Total residential sales surged 45% y/y in 4Q20 to 851k sqm. Adjusted for the fee development for third parties, the figure added 32% y/y. As a result, the quarterly number was 5% ahead of our model, and the annual figure set a new record of 2.35mn sqm.
· Moscow saw the most rapid growth, 70% y/y, in volumes in 4Q20. For own land plots, the increase was 45% y/y. The prime reason for this was the strong skew toward new launches (2mn sqm last year) in the area.
· The blended price increased 24% y/y in 4Q20. PIK relies heavily on its dynamic pricing model, which monitors demand drivers. In January, prices were raised 2.5%.
126 ​RUSSIA Country Report​ February 2021 www.intellinews.com