Page 36 - RusRPTFeb21

3.0​ ​Macro Economy 3.1 ​Macroeconomic overview
Russia suffered a smaller contraction than most major economies in 2020 ​after the government opted not to reimpose a lockdown in the second half of the year. Gross domestic product contracted 3.1% last year, the biggest slump since 2009, Russia’s Federal Statistics Service said Monday. The contraction was softer than expected by economists, who forecast a 3.7% drop in a Bloomberg survey. The Economy Ministry had projected a decrease of 3.9%. Most of the economic hit came in the first half, when the government imposed a strict lockdown and global oil demand slumped due to travel restrictions. Later in the year most parts of the economy were left open even as coronavirus virus cases soared. The country is on track for its deadliest year in more than a decade.
Russia's GDP contracted by 3.4% year-on-year in the third quarter, according to revised data.
During the first three quarters, GDP was 3.4% lower than a year earlier. In July-September, seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 0.7% from the previous quarter. Russia has so far survived the effects of the 2020 coronary pandemic with far less economic damage than most European countries.
The Russian statistical authorities have revised the data on GDP growth for 2018 and 2019. Previously, Russia's GDP was estimated to have grown by 2.5% and 1.3%, but new data suggest growth rates of 2.8% and 2.0%. In 2019, for example, extractive production increased by 2.6% and manufacturing production by 2.8%.
For its part, Russia's GDP figures have been maintained by growth in net exports. This, in turn, is mainly due to the collapse in imports. The volume of imports in the second and third quarters was more than 20% lower than in the previous year. During 2020, the volume of exports has also decreased steadily, but clearly less than the decline in imports.
On the production side, the industrial sector saw a significant improvement in December 2020​, almost closing the contraction gap (-0.2% y/y in December 2020 vs. -1.5% y/y in November 2020 and -5.7% y/y in October 2020). IP appeared to outperform consensus, MinEcon and our
36 ​RUSSIA Country Report​ February 2021 ​ ​www.intellinews.com