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3.2 Macro outlook
Most analysts are predicting growth of between 3.1% and 3.3% for the full year of 2021.
According to the IMF’s forecasts, Russia’s GDP will only grow by 2.5% this year (in the event that the epidemic is over by spring); the World Bank is predicting 2.6% recovery growth in 2021. In any cases, the Russian economy won’t make back its losses from the coronavirus crisis before 2022.
At this point, the world will be experiencing turbulent recovery growth. Developing economies as a whole will grow by 8% (according to predictions from the IMF); Russia will be one of the outliers (among large developing economies, only Belarus’s recovery will be slower). All of the leading developed economies will also recover from the crisis faster than Russia.
4.0 Real Economy
Key macroeconomic indicators
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2M20 2020e
GDP -2.5 -0.2 1.6 2.3 1.3 - -3.1
Industrial output -0.8 1.3 2.1 3.5 2.3 2.2 -6.3
Retail trade -10 -4.6 1.3 2.8 1.6 3.7 -3.8
Inflation (EOP) 12.9 5.4 2.5 4.3 3 2.3 5
Real wages -9.5 0.6 2.9 6.8 2.9 6.5* -6.7
Current account, $ bn 69.6 25 35.2 114.9 70.6 16 45
Budget deficit, % of GDP -2.5 -3.4 -1.4 2.7 1.8 -1.7 -1.7
RUB/USD (avg) 61.1 67.1 58.3 62.7 64.8 62.9 73.4
RUB/USD (EOP) 72.9 60.7 57.6 69.5 61.9 67 72
Brent $ / bbl (avg) 52.4 43.6 54.3 70.8 64.4 60 39
CBR rate 11 10 7.75 7.75 6.25 6 7.5 Source: Rosstat, BCS GM
39 RUSSIA Country Report February 2021 www.intellinews.com
