Page 54 - RusRPTFeb21

to $1.4bn from $28.9bn a year earlier. Net private capital outflows doubled to $47.8bn from $22.1bn in 2019.
Current account surplus will rise by 50%+ in 2021. Analysts forecast that the state of Russia’s external accounts will see significant improvements in 2021 as Russian and global economies return to growth from 2Q21, which is likely to be accompanied by stronger demand and more stable commodity prices. We expect c/a surplus to rise to $46bn in 2021 – the actual number could be even higher if crude oil prices remain at current levels and the global economy posts a faster recovery. However, Russia will continue to post capital outflows (c$30bn in 2021) as the country’s corporate and financial sectors continue to shrink their external debt leverage.
Revenues from exports of oil, oil products and gas were still more than 40% lower than a year ago, mainly due to low export prices. Revenue from exports of other goods, on the other hand, was about the same throughout the second half of the year as a year earlier. Revenues from exports of services were still more than 35% lower than a year ago, especially as Russia's tourism revenues remained very low.
Expenditure on imports of goods and services from Russia continued to recover slightly in the fourth quarter. Expenditure was still about 15% lower than a year earlier.
Imports of services also turned slightly better, but import expenditure was still about 40% lower than a year earlier. The reason is the collapse of Russian foreign tourism, where tourist spent $27bn last year while on holiday.
With imports declining slightly more than the decline in export earnings, Russia's goods trade surplus has been significantly lower than usual for almost a year. On the other hand, the sharp decline in Russian tourism spending in particular, as well as in dividends and interest paid abroad by Russian companies, has​ ​kept Russia's current account in surplus​, although the surplus shrank by 2% of GDP in 2020.
In contrast, net capital inflows from the corporate sector increased to just over 2% of GDP, a higher figure most recently seen during the 2014-2015 economic downturn.
54 ​RUSSIA Country Report​ February 2021 ​ ​www.intellinews.com