Page 68 - RusRPTFeb21

6.0​ Public Sector 6.1​ Budget
In 2020, federal budget deficit reached 3.8% of GDP, ​according to preliminary estimates by the Finance Ministry. Last time the deficit was close to this level was in 2010 (-3.9%). In nominal terms, deficit stood at RUB4,102bn ($57bn). In 2020, budget expenditures totalled RUB18.7 trillion or 90.9% of the plan, while budget revenues reached RUB22.8 trillion (116.1% of the plan).
The Minfin’s estimates point to a massive rise in deficit in December (RUB1.7 trillion or 15.1% of GDP), which is not unusual, given it was the last month of the fiscal year. At the same time, the Minfin has significantly cut its deficit estimates for the preceding months, underscoring both difficulties in assembling the data during the pandemic as well as low accuracy of initial figures. We expect the December estimate also to be revised down at a later stage as available liquidity statistics do not show any material rise in government spending last month.
Possible return to budget surplus in 2021 in an optimistic scenario. According to Minfin data, the volume of budget deficit last year was lower than the increase in the National Welfare Fund: $57bn vs $58bn. That shows that, in a broad sense, Russia’s state finances remained close to fully balanced – a
68 ​RUSSIA Country Report​ February 2021 ​ ​www.intellinews.com