Page 8 - RusRPTFeb21

trillion or 90.9% of the plan, while budget revenues reached RUB22.8 trillion (116.1% of the plan).
There is a possible return to budget surplus in 2021 in an optimistic scenario. According to Minfin data, the volume of budget deficit last year was lower than the increase in the National Welfare Fund: $57bn vs $58bn. That shows that, in a broad sense, Russia’s state finances remained close to fully balanced – a remarkable achievement given the pandemic. In 2021, analysts forecast federal budget deficit to fall to around 1% of GDP – this estimate is based on a $51/bbl average crude oil price and 3.3% y/y GDP growth projection. However, the current level of oil prices shows that our estimates might prove to be too conservative, which means that under an optimistic scenario Russia might even manage to close its finances with no deficit in 2021. From 2022 onwards, analysts forecast a return to consistent budget surpluses.
Revenues from exports of oil, oil products and gas were still more than 40% lower than a year ago, mainly due to low export prices. Revenue from exports of other goods, on the other hand, was about the same throughout the second half of the year as a year earlier. Revenues from exports of services were still more than 35% lower than a year ago, especially as Russia's tourism revenues remained very low.
Expenditure on imports of goods and services from Russia continued to recover slightly in the fourth quarter. Expenditure was still about 15% lower than a year earlier.
Imports of services also turned slightly better, but import expenditure was still about 40% lower than a year earlier. The reason is the collapse of Russian foreign tourism, where tourist spent $27bn last year while on holiday.
With imports declining slightly more than the decline in export earnings, Russia's goods trade surplus has been significantly lower than usual for almost a year. On the other hand, the sharp decline in Russian tourism spending in particular, as well as in dividends and interest paid abroad by Russian companies, has​ kept Russia's current account in surplus​, although the surplus shrank by 2% of GDP in 2020.
8 ​RUSSIA Country Report​ February 2021 ​ ​www.intellinews.com