Page 10 - TURKRptJul19

Turkish ‘deep state’ and Erdogan himself. “The decision to void the Istanbul election is the latest example that proves the power of this coalition. It is a big mistake to think of Erdogan as a leader who operates with full independence from deeper structural factors that have historically defined Turkish politics,”
“Whatever happens in Istanbul never ends in Istanbul alone”. Taspinar added: “After 16 years in power, Erdogan has proved himself to be a Machiavellian survivor who has successfully transformed the deep state’s secularist threat perception... This coalition will do all it must to torpedo the emergence of a game-changer in Turkish politics: the Kurds as kingmakers. For indeed, Imamoglu’s alliance with the Kurds in Istanbul could well shape the future of Turkey. And in this, the stakes for the deep state are high: whatever happens in Istanbul never ends in Istanbul alone.”
Survival turning on global recognition. Win or lose the revote, the question of Erdogan’s survival will likely turn more on his ability to sustain his global recognition. Even if his domestic support keeps declining inexorably amid the spiralling down of the country’s economy, Erdogan might remain in the presidential palace as a Western-backed autocrat like Saudi crown prince ‘MbS’ or as a non-Western-backed dictator such Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro. There are reports that Donald Trump likes Erdogan’s style (and that’s enough, folks!) and is wavering over plans drawn up by officials to hit Turkey with sanctions in the Russian missiles row. If Erdogan cannot manage to secure the support of some powerful foreign tutelars, then observers might see him on the path to a snap election, whatever the result of the revote, a snap election he could be doomed to lose. But let’s not forget, this is a man who needs to keep himself and his family away from the reach of both domestic and international law. Karabekir Akkoyunlu of Sao Paulo University told Ahval on April 13 that Erdogan and his colleagues were afraid of major legal consequences for alleged massive malfeasance if they were ever ousted. “That creates a sort of vicious circle of existential insecurity, and politics becomes a zero-sum game. So it’s either you dominate or you’re destroyed,” Akkoyunlu commented.
A scandal is in the air following the release of an open letter from the jailed leader of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), Abdullah Ocalan, by his lawyers, whom the government has permitted to visit their client in recent months. The lawyers advised that Ocalan has recommended that the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) should choose a ‘third way’ as regards the Istanbul re-run by calling on Kurds in the city to remain neutral rather than collectively vote for Imamoglu as they did on March 31. However, and tellingly, Ocalan added that as a political party the HDP would make its own decision on its recommendation—and observers see the latest standpoint of the HDP as coded advice to Kurds in Istanbul to vote for Imamoglu. The fact that such a letter from Ocalan was publicly released amounts to a big controversy in Turkey because there are currently thousands of people in Erdogan’s jails for allegedly simply showing support for the outlawed PKK with tweets. Erdogan seemed to get behind Ocalan—whom critics mockingly described as his new coalition partner—when claiming during a televised interview that there was a power struggle between the HDP and the PKK, and between imprisoned former HDP co-head Selahattin Demirtas and Ocalan, bianet reported. Erdogan, 65, also had what some observers wryly said was a Freudian slip or ‘senior moment’ during a revote campaign rally, mistakenly accusing his People’s Alliance of partnering with terrorist organisations rather than the rival Nation Alliance led by Imamoglu’s party, the Republican Peoples’ Party (CHP). That was an error that won’t have gone down well with Devlet Bahceli, leader of the ultra-nationalist MHP, which is the ruling coalition junior partner of Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP). Bahceli also claimed that the call for neutrality from Ocalan was a result of a clash between the PKK and HDP. In response to Ocalan's letter, the HDP said in a written statement that its strategy for the Istanbul re-run remains consistent with Ocalan’s message. Although Erdogan’s Ocalan move has been nullified by the HDP, the president’s sudden fondness for the Kurds of recent days found new expression on June 21 when he hosted Iraqi Kurdistan President Nechirvan Barzani in Istanbul. When one adds the dire state of the
10 TURKEY Country Report July 2019 www.intellinews.com