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2.3 Trump-Erdogan meeting brings no logic to S-400 row but temporary relief for Turkish assets
The long-awaited meeting between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his US counterpart Donald Trump was held on June 29 in Osaka, Japan on the sidelines of the G20 summit. Markets have focused on the meeting since the Turkish side have been pumping for a while that Erdogan would solve the sanctions issue with Trump in Osaka. Party in Turkish assets had already begun before Trump-Erdogan meeting. It was notable that Trump has voiced Erdogan’s arguments. However, he did not guarantee that he would halt the CAATSA sanctions to be imposed on Turkey. US lawmakers want to impose sanctions on Turkey over its purchase of Russian S-400 missile defence systems. They say that the S-400s could jeopardise the performance data of F-35 stealth fighter jets and that Turkey should be thrown out of the F-35 programme and not obtain any of the jets if it goes ahead with its deal with the Kremlin. Trump’s empathetic stance towards Erdogan’s arguments fuelled the enthusiasm in Turkey.
Turkish assets rallied on July 1. Foreign investors could use the relief in Turkish assets as the last exit before sanctions while locals are under heavy propaganda by Erdogan media suggesting S-400 issue has been solved. Currently, it is smelling like Turkish markets are getting ready for a last rally prior to the scheduled arrival of S-400s within July.
On the international politics front, the current situation smells like Erdogan will buy S-400s but Trump will help him smooth the reactions of the US establishment. In Osaka, both populists, as expected, made no compromise on their trademark surrealist stances.
Although Trump pleased Erdogan by repeating his claims, sanctions issue remained “complicated”. “We have a complicated situation because the president was not allowed to buy the Patriot missiles, so he bought the other ones - the S-200s or 400s... He wasn’t allowed by the Obama administration to buy it until after he made a deal to buy other missiles. So, he buys the other missiles, and then all of sudden, they say, ‘Well, you can now buy our missiles.’ You can’t do business that way. It’s not good,” Trump said during his briefing, according to the minutes of their joint press meeting with Erdogan prior to their 35 minute-long shooting the breeze released by the White House.
It is notable that blaming Obama could help Trump also blame his predecessor for the CAATSA sanctions to be imposed on his “close friend” Erdogan’s country. “It’s a problem, there’s no question about it... It’s not good. It’s not good... We’re looking at different solutions ... It’s a two-way street... He’s a Nato member, and he’s someone I’ve become friendly with, and you have to treat people fairly. I don’t think he was treated fairly,” Trump replied to a question on the sanctions. Despite Erdogan’s claims suggesting Trump would visit Turkey in July, Trump said he would visit but a date had not been set yet. Trump described the current situation during his press briefing at the end of the G-20 summit as “a mess” but “honestly, it’s not really Erdogan’s fault.” “He’s tough, but I get along with him... Maybe it’s a bad thing, but I think it’s a good thing,” he also told reporters. Meanwhile, Erdogan has kept his stance to describe the solid stance by the US establishment as some insignificant noises from “lower levels” although he did not elaborate on whether he sees the US establishment as a whole, including the US congress, as insignificant. “What some people in lower ranks are saying absolutely do not align with Mr Trump’s approach. I believe these will not harm our bilateral ties, and that is the commitment we are going on with,” Erdogan said during his press briefing at the end of the G20 summit. Erdogan also claimed that Trump has assured him he would not sanction Turkey. “We have heard from him personally that would not happen... We are strategic partners with the United States. As strategic partners, nobody has the right to meddle in Turkey’s sovereign rights. Everyone should know this,” Erdogan said, according to
16 TURKEY Country Report July 2019 www.intellinews.com