Page 50 - RusRPTSept20

6.0 Public Sector 6.1 Budget
Key parameters: draft federal budget for 2020-22
Units
2018
2019 (current law)
2020F
2021F
2022F
GDP
RUB bn
108,414
112,863
120,364
128,508
GDP growth
% y/y
1.3
1.7
3.1
3.2
Average price of oil
$
62.2
57
56
55
RUB/USD exchange rate average
65.4
65.7
66.1
66.5
Inflation average
% y/y
3.8
3
4
4
Revenues
RUB bn
19,454.40
20,174.90
20,363.00
21,246.50
22,058.30
% GDP
18.7
18.5
18
17.7
17.2
Federal budget: surplus allocation and debt financing
RUB bn
2019 (current law)
2020F
2021F
2022F
Total
-1881.2
-880.8
-614.5
-287.6
% GDP
1.7
0.8
0.5
0.2
including:
Debt
1409.7
1599.5
1718.5
1874.5
NWF
4.7
4.5
4.3
4.1
Other
-3295.7
-2484.9
-2337.4
-2166.1
Source: MinFin, VTB Capital Research.
The revenue stream to the consolidated budget, which covers the federal budget, regional and local budgets, and state social funds, declined 13% in the second quarter and about 4% year-on-year in the first half.
The depth of the contraction readings was curbed by Sberbank's ownership arrangement from the central bank to the state, with, which the central bank paid a large lump sum to the federal budget in April as a surplus settlement.
Without it, consolidated budget revenues contracted by 23% year-on-year in the second quarter and by 9% year-on-year in the first half of the year.
Expenditure in the consolidated budget has been increased. Expenditure in both the first and second quarters of the year was about 17% higher than a
50 RUSSIA Country Report September 2020 www.intellinews.com