Page 26 - UKRRptJuly18

of 30% y/y drove goods export growth to 22% y/y. That said, we expect goods exports to accelerate in June amid a high growth rate of metals and chemicals. At the same time, goods imports are not likely to cool significantly amid restored growth of energy imports,” Evgeniya Akhtyrko of Concorde Capital said in a note.
“We expect the trade deficit to swell $10.8bn through the end of the year (from $2.9bn in 5M18), assuming an almost even growth pace between exports (we project 11.3% y/y in 2018) and imports (11.5% y/y in 2018). Our forecast is for a 2018 C/A deficit of $2.4bn (vs. a $2.1bn deficit in 2017),” she adds.
Ukraine’s merchandise trade deficit dropped by 74% month-on-month to $143.2mn in April , according to the Ukrstat state statistics service.
The seasonally adjusted goods trade deficit jumped 21.9% m/m, given seasonally adjusted exports and imports declined 3.6% m/m and 1.0%, respectively.
In January-April the trade deficit reached $1.4bn, or a 46.9% year-on-year surge. Imports increased 15.1% y/y, outpacing exports that grew 12.8% y/y. Goods imports were driven by machinery (23.1% y/y), chemicals (16.6% y/y), and food (29.3% y/y).
The contribution of energy imports, which increased 1% in January-April, was not significant in overall import growth. Export growth continues to be driven by metals (31.8% y/y growth in the first four months of 2018), machinery (22.9% y/y), and timber (45.2% y/y).
Evgeniya Akhtyrko at Kyiv-based brokerage Concorde Capital believes that Ukraine's merchandise exports have yet to enter a steady growth path, continuing to show month-to-month swings.
"Meanwhile, rising energy imports (after a continuing decline in January-March) imply that we are not likely to see deceleration in goods imports," she added on a note. "In addition, expected growing demand for investment and consumer goods will also contribute to import growth."
Concorde forecasts goods trade deficit (according to Ukrstat methodology) will reach $7bn in 2018(vs. $6.3bn in 2017).
Ukraine exports 39mn tons of grains in the current marketing year. "In particular, almost 16.7mn tons of wheat (including almost 10mn tons of milling wheat and 6.8mn tons of fodder wheat), 4.1mn tons of barley and over 17mn tons of corn have been exported since the beginning of the current marketing year," the press service of the State Service of Ukraine on Food Safety and Consumer Protection reports. Exports of oilseeds have also grown.
26 UKRAINE Country Report July 2018 www.intellinews.com