Page 9 - UKRRptJuly18

decreasing global commodity prices and slowing global economic growth," the NBU's inflation report reads. "This could be partly offset by an expansion of Ukraine’s share of the agricultural markets of the countries that take countermeasures, such China and the EU states."
The central bank forecasts that prices for ferrous metals will remain high despite a correction triggered by the rise in Chinese production after the expiry of current restrictions, and excess inventories in some markets caused by trade wars.
Prices will mainly grow on a further expansion of demand for ferrous metals driven by global economic growth, especially in the construction and engineering industries, as well as by a continued decrease in excess capacity in China.
Over 2016-2017, a Chinese government programme resulted in the elimination of more than 200mn tonnes of excess steel production capacity, and another 30mn-50mn is to be cut by in 2018. Consequently, steel production in China will grow by only 0.6% y/y in 2018, whereas demand growth will accelerate to 2.1%. Demand from the US, India, and Europe is expected to rise as well.
Despite steady demand for ferrous metals, iron ore prices will decline on robust market supply. This will be primarily due to the global leaders - Australia and Brazil - increasing their production amid lower production costs. At the same time, China’s demand for iron ore will be flat in 2018, held back by record-high inventories. As in 2017, high-quality iron ore will be especially in demand, the NBU believes.
2.3 Eight parties to enter Rada in 2019 elections, three quarters think country going in wrong direction
If the parliamentary elections in Ukraine were held in mid-June, eight political forces could pass a 5% electoral barrier to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, according to a sociological survey conducted by Rating Sociological Group.
Thus, according to the study presented at the Interfax-Ukraine press center on
9 UKRAINE Country Report July 2018 www.intellinews.com