Page 31 - UKRRptJun19

5.0 External Sector & Trade
Balance of payments
Current account balance, USD bln
% GDP
Financial account balance, USD bln
% GDP
FDI net, USD bln
% of GDP
Gross NBU reserves (eop), USD bln
Source: SP Advisors
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E
-12.8 -1.7 -3 -10.2 -14.3
-16.5 -4.6 -0.2 -3.5 -2.4 -4.5 -4.7
-7.1% -1.5% -2.2% -6.3% -8.1% -9.0% -3.4% -0.2% -3.7% -2.2% -3.4% -3.2%
9.7 -12 8 7.8 10.1
18.6 -9.1 0.6 4.7 5 7.4 4
5.4% -10.2% 5.9% 4.8% 5.8% 10.1% -6.8% 0.6% 5.0% 4.5% 5.6% 2.7%
9.9 4.7 5.8 7 7.2 4.1 0.3 3 3.3 2.6 2.4 2.5
5.5% 4.0% 4.2% 4.3% 4.1% 2.2% 0.2% 3.3% 3.5% 2.3% 1.8% 1.7%
31.5 26.5 34.6 31.8 24.5 20.4 7.5 13.3
15.5 18.8 20.8 20.5
5.1 External sector overview
Ukraine’s goods trade deficit reached a $621mn deficit in March, shrinking from $825mn in February, the nation's state statistics service Ukrstat said in its preliminary report on May 15.
The seasonally adjusted goods trade deficit amounted to $635mn (a 20.1% month-on-month fall from a $794mn deficit in February) amid 2% m/m growth in adjusted exports and a 1.4% m/m drop in adjusted imports.
In January-March, the trade deficit reached $1.5bn, increasing 13% year-on- year. In the first quarter of 2019, goods exports advanced 7.4% y/y to $12.3bn. Meanwhile, goods imports rose 7.9% y/y to $13.7bn.
The agricultural sector remained the major contributor to export growth. In particular, grain exports surged 52% y/y and finished food product exports picked up 18.3% y/y.
At the same time, exports of ferrous metals and machinery declined 6.5% y/y and 5.6% y/y, respectively. Road vehicle and aircraft imports surged 49.6% y/y, being a major contributor to rising imports overall. In addition, machinery imports climbed 8.7% y/y.
Evgeniya Akhtyrko Kyiv-based brokerage Concorde Capital wrote in a note on May 17 that March's trends in external trade in goods were extended from the prior month. The goods trade deficit coincided with our expectations.
"The provisional customs statistics released this month promise that April’s trade deficit will stay at around $600mn amid some month-to-month decrease both in exports and imports, she added.
Concorde expects the 2019 goods trade deficit (according to Ukrstat methodology) will swell to $11.5bn (from $9.8bn in 2018), with import growth outpacing export gains.
31 UKRAINE Country Report June 2019
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