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March 31, 2017 www.intellinews.com I Page 2
Bulgaria’s kingmaker parties to hold GERB to ransom
the elections, if negotiations do not go their way. They are expected to demand ministerial seats,
as well as policy concessions such as a push from the Patriots for a more nationalist stance from the typically pragmatic GERB.
GERB will need the support of at least one party
to get a majority in parliament. The party’s leader Boyko Borissov has said he will try his best to form a new government with very little compromise and indicated that will rely on its former partners the United Patriots. However, the two parties would have a very fragile majority (122 of the 240 seats in parliament). Local analysts believe that Borissov will also try to attract Volya, recently launched by businessman Vesselin Mareshki, to join the coali- tion to secure a comfortable majority.
GERB will have 95 MPs in the 240-seat parliament and is followed by the BSP with 80, the United Pa- triots coalition (27), the predominantly ethnic-Turk Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS, 26) and Volya (12).
“Negotiations will be likely difficult and lengthy. The UP alliance is comprised of three distinct political parties with differing interests and com- petition for influence, while Volya has hinted that it would support GERB only under certain yet-to-be- disclosed conditions,” Teneo Intelligence said in a comment following the election.
Although having previously showed willingness
to support Borissov, the day after the March 26 election the United Patriots and Volya surprisingly said they would first negotiate with each other and then decide whether and at what cost they will join any coalition with GERB. Both parties gave clear signals that demands would include minis- terial seats in return for their support.
Shortly after the announcement of the first re- sults, Valeri Simeonov, one of the leaders of the United Patriots, told bTV that his party is ready to back either GERB or the BSP and that they are ready to propose ministers for the future govern- ment. He added that the platforms of the BSP and the Patriots match in all the main points. The United Patriots coalition includes three national- ist parties – the National Front for the Salvation of Bulgaria (NFSB), VMRO-Bulgarian National Movement and Ataka. “We will talk to every-
body depending on how the roulette will spin,” the Dnevnik daily quoted Simeonov as saying.
At the same time, Volya, which previously indicated it would definitely support Borissov, also seems
to have realised it is in very good position and said it will support the GERB leader only in return for ministerial seats. Party leader Mareshki even told media that he would be satisfied if he heads the new government, indicating that his demands will be significant. “We either enter [the government] and participate, or will be a corrective and will... illuminate the others, showing if they are keep- ing the promises they have given,” Mareshki was quoted by Dnevnik as telling a press conference.
He added that the party has very good experts on the economy, agriculture, energy, tourism, innova- tions and foreign policy sectors.
Policy differences
There are some substantial policy differences between the populist and pragmatic GERB and the strong nationalist agenda of the United Patri- ots, and it is not yet clear how far Borissov will be forced to concede on this issue to bring them into his government.
While Borissov, like the nationalists, favours stop- ping migration across the Turkish border, unlike the Patriots he is not anti-Turkish and supports developing relations between Bulgaria and Tur- key as good neighbours, partners and Nato allies. This is in line with his efforts to maintain good relations with both Russia and the West, even though his governments have leaned westwards.