Page 15 - IRANRptJun19

because income from its usual sources, including oil export sales, has diminished in the face of what President Hassan Rouhani has referred to as Washington’s “economic war”.
Iran’s industrial production fell 0.5% in the third quarter of 2018, down from 6.5% y/y in the previous quarter and 5.7% y/y in the first quarter, CEIC data showed. Major industrial production includes oil, petrochemical products and automobiles
4.2 Inflation 4.2.1 CPI dynamics
Iran’s annual inflation reaches 52.1%
Iran’s goods and services consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate for the second month of the 2019/2020 Persian year (started April 21) stood at 52.1% y/y and moved up 0.7% m/m, the Statistical Centre of Iran (SCI) reported on May 23. Food prices rose by 83% while non-food item prices climbed 40%, it added.
Iran is facing a perfect storm involving a severe currency devaluation amid tightening sanctions levied by the US and stagnating wages. Many Iranians have cut down to essential purchases only, but prices have nevertheless continued to jump across the country. Rural areas are more heavily affected than urban localities.
Some international economists put Iran’s inflation rate a good deal higher than what is portrayed by the country’s official statisticians.
Iran’s economy is expected to shrink for a second consecutive year in 2019 while CPI inflation could hit 50% for the year, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in late April.
The US from the start of May stepped up its attempt to throttle the Iranian economy to force concessions on Tehran’s approach to Middle East affairs by launching a strategy aimed at trying to force Iran’s crude oil exports to zero. Last year’s reintroduction of sanctions against Iran pushed the Iranians back into recession, with growth contracting by 3.9% in 2018, IMF estimates suggest. The Fund now sees Iran on course for at least a 6% decline in GDP in 2019. However, that calculation was form ulated before the US announced it was looking to wipe out Iran’s oil exports .
15 IRAN Country Report June 2019 www.intellinews.com