Page 6 - AfrOil Week 24

AfrOil PERfoRmanCE AfrOil
Africa’s turn to gas
African producers have lost around 2 million bpd of oil output over the last 10 years, but gas production is increasing
outPut
WHat:
oil output in africa is broadly down, although it has picked up in the last year.
WHy:
african states have struggled to secure additional investments, while the Libyan con ict accounts for around half the decline.
WHat nExt:
Gas production is increasing, with egypt a particular bright spot.
AFRICAN oil production reached 8.19 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2018, continuing to increase from the 2016 low of 7.64 million bpd. e numbers, put out by BP in its annual Statis- tical Review of World Energy last week, highlight that production has been substantially reduced from 10 years ago, when the continent produced a record 10.3 million bpd.
Of the 13 countries identified by BP, pro- duction had fallen in 12 from 2008 to 2018. e exception was Congo Brazzaville, which had increased output by 96,000 bpd. e semi-ex- ception is South Sudan, on the basis it was not a state in 2008. Combining the South Sudanese and Sudan gures – as they were in 2008 – gives a total of 231,000 bpd, down by 226,000 bpd over the 10-year period.
Oil consumption in Africa, meanwhile, rose to 3.96 million bpd, from 3.2 million bpd in 2008.
Heavy hitters
e sole bright light, Congo Brazzaville, has seen production uctuate. Output dipped in 2012 to 2016 but then began increasing, driven by Total’s Moho Nord project. is development started up in March 2017 and is the country’s single big- gest project and rst in the deepwater.
Total reported strong performance from the country in its 2018 annual report, noting that Moho Nord was producing at more than its 100,000 bpd design capacity during the year as a result of strong productivity from wells. ere are plans afoot for more in the country. Eni’s Nene Marine development is targeting 140,000 boepd, with early production already owing.
Congo Brazzaville aside, the overall story of the last 10 years has not been good for the conti- nent. e most drastic reductions came in Libya, where the a er e ects of the 2011 civil war con- tinue to rumble. Production increased in 2017 and 2018, as the Libyan National Army (LNA) has secured key export infrastructure and done much to reduce the ability of Islamic State (IS) to operate.
However, the army – a liated with the House of Representatives (HoR) in the country’s east, and led by General Khalifa Hi er – is besieging Tripoli and appears to have ruled out peace until the capital has been taken. The international community has expressed some reservations about Hi er’s advance but done little to slow his progress, or the provision of materiel from a number of states for the LNA.
Algeria and Angola have seen similar declines, down by 441,000 and 342,000 bpd respectively. These two states, both OPEC members, have similar prob- lems in securing foreign investment
and a fairly high cost of production. Angola has taken steps to improve its international appeal, passing a number of laws intended to attract foreign investment and tackling some of the more prominent corruption concerns. Algeria, though, had been making progress but this is now under doubt, given the removal of the Abdelaziz Boute ika-led regime ear-
lier this year.
The government had demon-
strated an interest in rolling back some of the more stringent condi- tions imposed on foreign companies – and these moves were beginning to pay o . However, with pressure from protestors likely to topple the interim government, amid the scrapping of an election planned for July, companies are likely to move with caution.
12 10 8 6 4 2 0
2008 2009 Algeria
2010 2011 Angola
2012
2013 2014 Chad
Gabon Sudan
2015 2016 2017 2018 Congo Brazzaville
Libya Tunisia
African oil production
Egypt Nigeria Other Africa
Equatorial Guinea South Sudan
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w w w . N E W S B A S E . c o m Week 24 18•June•2019
Million bpd