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Opinion
November 30, 2018 www.intellinews.com I Page 25
protocols – what the Russians have referred to as “dangerous manoeuvres.” If it was designed as
a Ukrainian provocation it would be expected for the Kremlin to panic and for both the president and prime minister to become involved. Indeed, if it was a planned act of aggression by the Russian side there would be no panic in the Kremlin.
The Ukrainian side claim the opposite and flatly contradict the Russian version of the story. In
the statement accompanying the audio file the Ukrainians claimed that the Ukrainian vessels did hail the Kerch authorities and did ask permission to pass through the straits.
“At 03.58 in order to comply with international shipping security standards Ukrainian Navy small armoured artillery boat "Berdyansk" contacted the coast post of Russian FSB AF, maritime traffic control KERCH and KAVKAZ and informed them about an intention to pass the Kerch Strait. Information was received, but no response was provided. Nevertheless, on 04.07 negotiations
of the port Kerch "BEREG-23" operator with the Russian Black Sea Fleet corvette "Suzdalets" regarding the detection of ships of the Naval Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were recorded,” the statement said.
Someone is lying
While the video footage clearly show the Russian frigate ramming the Ukrainian tug, this throws no light on the crucial issue of if the Ukrainian ships followed the protocols to pass though the straits. Ukraine has produced audio of the Russian operators talking but pointedly has not provided audio of their own ships asking for permission to pass through the straits. What evidence there is from the audio tape is inconclusive.
More damming is the Russian decision to close access to the straits by parking a tanker under the bridge and effectively closing the straits to traffic. According to the Ukrainian navy statement this ship had turned off its Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponder that identifies it to other shipping, which is a breach of maritime law and opens Russia up to accusations of blockading the
straits. (The tanker was removed by the end of the day, else this would be a clear act of war.)
Martial law
The question of who started this fight remains open without conclusive evidence on either side. But the political timing of the Sea of Azov incident makes it highly suspicious and warrants careful review.
The main problem is that Putin, who is widely credited with being a “master tactician” (even if he is also thought to be a poor strategist) seems to have lost the plot with the Sea of Azov and handed Poroshenko a political gift that amounts to his best chance for getting re-elected.
The animosity between Putin and Poroshenko
is palpable when they meet in person. And
the Kremlin’s best interests are clearly served by seeing Poroshenko lose the election to Tymoshenko, who is at the end of the day, a deal maker.
As the former a prime minister, Tymoshenko
had a fraught relationship with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). She was caught red handed cooking Ukraine’s national accounts to pretend the budget deficit was IMF compliant when in fact she was spending freely to bolster her popular support, as bne IntelliNews reported at the time. She famously granted the return of Soviet-era deposits with Oschadbank, the former Soviet-
era savings bank, that were lost during the hyperinflation of the start of the 90s while prime minister, which cost the state billions of dollars, amongst other moves.
Moreover, she is currently campaigning on
what is in effect an anti-IMF platform, calling the IMF’s demand to hike domestic gas tariffs — a demand the Poroshenko government has conceded to — “economic genocide” on October 23 and promising to prosecute Poroshenko’s administration if she wins the election.
If Tymoshenko wins then it is quite possible the