Page 6 - Downstream Monitor - MEA Week 35

DMEA Commentary DMEA
Sudan: What’s at stake?
As the country moves into a period of political transition, its oil sector deserves close attention
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What:
Sudan’s oil portfolio is less impressive than that of neighbouring South Sudan, but it still warrants close attention.
Why:
The country controls the only existing pipelines available for South Sudanese production.
What next:
The new transitional government will have tobalance oil interest and economic growth with other concerns.
THIS year has been a momentous one for Sudan. The country’s long-time leader, President
Omar al-Bashir, left office in April.
He was forced to do so by the Sudanese mil-
itary, following several months of demonstra- tions by crowds who began by protesting over economic hardships and then shifted to calling for the president’s resignation.
Al-Bashir’s departure at the hands of a mil- itary junta, known as the Transitional Military Council (TMC), did not put an immediate end to the unrest.
The TMC’s attempts to maintain public order drew heavy criticism from political opposition parties and protestors, many of whom feared that Sudan might be exchanging one form of tyranny for another
The African Union also expressed concern, saying it was ready to suspend Sudan’s member- ship unless steps were taken to ensure the coun- try’s transition to civilian rule.
But conditions have improved during the last two months. The TMC struck an informal deal with the wide array of opposition and protest groups that had rallied under the banner of the Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC) on July 5, and the parties signed an official agreement
outlining their plans for a 39-month political transition period on July 17.
On August 3-4, they approved a constitu- tional agreement that helped flesh out these plans. Then on August 17, they formalised the deal by signing a package of documents that will govern the course of the country until elections are held in 2022.
Change
This development sparked celebrations across the country. Demonstrators and FFC support- ers lined the streets of Khartoum and other cities to hail the agreement between the TMC and the civilian umbrella group.
It also cleared the way for the appointment of Abdalla Hamdok, an experienced econo- mist who had previously worked for the UN, as Sudan’s interim prime minister. Hamdok is widely expected to focus his efforts on economic growth – and this is probably a good thing, given that Sudan has enjoyed precious little in the way of growth or stability in recent years.
Indeed, the country’s economy has been going downhill since 2011, when its southern- most provinces broke away to form the new state of South Sudan. These provinces had been
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w w w . N E W S B A S E . c o m Week 35 05•September•2019