Page 157 - RusRPTApr21

64/share. We are waiting for strong operating numbers starting from March, and we expect to see a strong 2022, as operations should recover further.
Aeroflot sees recovery to pre-COVID-19 levels in 2H22, beginning of 2023.
Aeroflot held a conference call on 11 March, to discuss its 4Q20 IFRS results. In our opinion, the most important statements made by the airline’s management team were as follows: Aeroflot estimated that the cash burn in 4Q20 was RUB 12-13bn, and it expects a similar number for 1Q21.
The airline anticipates that the aviation market in Russia will recover to pre-COVID-19 levels either in 2H22 or at the beginning of 2023.
The airline has seen positive trends in yields in 1Q21.
Aeroflot plans to transfer 10 B737 airplanes to Pobeda in 2021 and another 40 in 2022-23. Rossiya will receive 41 SSJ airplanes in 2021 and another 10 in 2022-23.
We expect the company to return to pre-COVID-19 levels starting from the beginning of next year, although this looks too optimistic in light of the company’s current outlook. We maintain our cautious view on the stock, for which we have a HOLD rating and TP of RUB 64/share.
Aeroflot’s low cost airline Pobeda gave some details on its plans, VTB Capital (VTBC) said in a note.
Pobeda’s management does not often give interviews, despite increased investor interest attention. However, CEO Andrey Kalmykov recently hosted a briefing about Pobeda starting to operate flights from Moscow's Sheremetyevo airport, and shed some light on the plans for 2021.
Pobeda is to get 10 more aircraft from Aeroflot over the course of this year, with the first 4 to come by May. In 2022, it will get another 24 (the strategy targets 170 aircraft by 2028, up from 34 now).
As a result, Pobeda is going to carry 13.5mn PAX this year, up 49% y/y (31% on 2019). To the best of our knowledge, this would make it one of the fastest growing airlines globally.
We calculate that Pobeda will account for 27% of all the Group’s traffic and 16% of EBITDA in 2021F.
157 RUSSIA Country Report April 2021 www.intellinews.com