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increasing FX purchases for the NWF (daily purchases up 2.5x to $90mn since 5 March) and did not react much to oil prices edging closer to $70/bbl in that month.
Instead, the ruble was sensitive to the geopolitical factor – while managing to appreciate 1-2% v the greenback on the news about 'soft' sanctions by the EU and the US in March, its rate fell by the very same 2% after speculation began that the US would impose much tougher sanctions in June, despite a significant bounce in oil prices.
With the ruble dollar rate at around RUB74 in March most analysts are expecting the national currency to en the year at around RUB71- RUB72 by the end of the year.
Russia’s net private capital outflow fell by 18.4% on the year to US $12bn in January–February, the central bank said on Wednesday citing preliminary data. In 2020, Russia’s net private capital outflow more than doubled on the year to US $47.8bn.
7.1 FX issues
Russian ruble gets less support than expected from current account.The shrinking of the current account surplus to $6bn in February was a negative
86 RUSSIA Country Report April 2021 www.intellinews.com