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that are not subject to the draft law). Therefore, we do not think this will derail the bank loan growth. More importantly, the CBR is going to be gradually unwinding the regulatory relief on consumer lending,” VTB Capital (VTBC) said in a note.
The support measures for banks are to start expiring from 1 April 2021 and the CBR might return to higher risk weights in consumer lending as soon as it considers that risks are going to increase, VTBC reports.
“This might happen sooner rather than later, so from the ROE / NPV perspective (which TCS uses), it makes sense for the bank to be aggressive in terms of volumes in 2021, until regulatory tightening arrives,” the analysts add.
“For 2022, we expect TCS’s loan growth to slow down to 27% y/y, which we believe is below the CBR’s ‘red line’ of 30% y/y growth. Therefore, we do not see risks to our forecasts and investment thesis built on non-lending products (brokerage, ‘Shopify’ for SMEs) and lower risk secured lending (e.g. home equity, mortgages and, potentially, leasing),” VTBC concludes.
The additional capitalization of Russian state-owned banks (under the control of the Federal Property Management Agency) and credit organizations owned by state corporations and development institutions decreased by 25% in 2020, experts from the National Credit Ratings Agency (NKR) calculated at the request of RBC.
Their capital growth in 2020 amounted to RUB92bn against RUB123bn rubles in 2019. The volume of state support last year became the third largest in the five years that have passed since the crisis of 2015.
According to NKR estimates, the volume of additional capitalization of quasi-state banks (Gazprombank, Post Bank and Rosgosstrakh Bank) over the past five years amounted to RUB111bn.
The Deposit Insurance Agency finances the remediation at the expense of loans from the Central Bank. According to the DIA itself, the financing of reorganizations at the beginning of February is provided by loans from the Bank of Russia for RUB1.066 trillion rubles. and the property contribution of the state only RUB55.5bn rubles. The agency has already returned about 0.5 trillion rubles taken from the Central Bank for reorganization.
The Central Bank's own readjustments were also not included in the calculation base: the multi bn-dollar spending of the Central Bank for these purposes does not apply to budget expenditures. For the recovery of Otkritie, B&N Bank,
98 RUSSIA Country Report April 2021 www.intellinews.com