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Russia's expected tax manoeuvre envisages a gradual reduction in the rate of export duty on oil and petroleum products from 30 % to zero in the period from 2019 to 2024 and a proportionate increase in mineral extraction tax on oil production.
According to the Belarusian finance ministry, the country’s budget revenue losses from the tax manoeuvre in 2019 alone were estimated at BYN600mn ($300mn), and that the losses might total $2bn by the end of 2024.
Belarus’ foreign exchange reserves increased by $181.3mn, or 2.6% month-on-month, to $7.108bn in October. However, significant part of the reserves were created by bonds issued by the National Bank of Belarus (NBB), which the regulator should repay within the next 12 months. The bondholders of these notes are local commercial banks.
2.4 Lukashenko is Russians favourite CIS leader
Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko is Russian favourite president amongst the leaders of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), according to a poll from the state owned pollster, the Russian Public Opinion Research Centre (VTsIOM), released on December 4.
Lukashenko's approval rating is 65%, according to VTsIOM, ahead of Kazakh president Nursultan Nazarbayev with 49%. They are followed by President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev (14%), Armenia’s Nikol Pashinian (8%) and Moldova’s Igor Dodon (7%). The leaders of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Ukraine and Georgia polled less than 4%.
At home Russian president Vladimir Putin remains very popular, but has seen his approval fall following the government’s decision to increase retirement ages in July.
3.0 Macro Economy 3.1 Macroeconomic overview
In January-October 2018 Belarus' GDP went up by 3.5% from the same period a year ago , BelTA learned from the National Statistics Committee of Belarus. According to the first assessment, the country's GDP in money terms totaled Br100.6bn, or 103.5% in comparable prices against January-October 2017. In January-October 2018 the GDP deflator index made up 112.5% as against the same months in 2017.
The European Bank of Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) expects real GDP to reach 3.0% in 2018 and then fall to 2.5% in 2019, while cautioning that growth continues to depend on the extent of structural reforms and the dynamism of the private sector in value creation.
According to the same report, real wages and disposable income increased by 12.6% YoY while in the same period Belorussian exports increased 18.3% in USD terms. Interestingly, export flows to the EU increased by 43% YoY to the point where EU-bound exports now represent 31.4% of the total.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expected 3.5-3.7% growth of the Belarusian economy in 2018 , Jacques Miniane, head of the IMF
8 BELARUS Country Report December 2018 www.intellinews.com