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bne Invest
February 16, 2019 www.intellinews.com I Page 9
COMMENT: Russia’s drive to sanction proof the economy depresses economic activity
Head of Russia research at ING in Amsterdam
Both consumer and producer activity weakened in December 2018, confirming our expectations of declining support of local demand to GDP growth at least at the beginning of 2019. This year will be a test to Russia's conservative approach to fiscal and monetary policy, writes Dmitry Dolgin, the head of ING’s Russia research, in a note.
Consumption no longer supported by income
or leverage
With the exception of the unemployment rate, which remained at a low level of 4.8%, the household activity data for December 2018 was a disappointment. While we expected a pre-VAT hike spending splurge to keep the retail trade figures close to 3.0% y/y, the actual result was only 2.3% y/y, putting the full-year result at 2.6%. Admittedly, this number may underestimate the consumption volumes due to the growing share of cross-border internet trade (eg, AliExpress), which may not be fully accounted for in the flash statistics, however, we are more concerned with other indicators of deterioration of the income and consumption trend coming from various sources:
• The real salary growth decelerated to 2.5%
y/y in December 2018 (vs 4.4% y/y consensus) from 4.2% y/y in November, which is a result of both acceleration in the CPI growth from 3.8% to 4.3% y/y and the slowdown in nominal salary growth to 6.9% y/y from 8-10% y/y in the previous months.
• Weaker income trend is confirmed by the slowdown in retail deposit growth (adjusted for FX revaluation effect) to a mere 5.5% in December 2018 vs 6-8% y/y in the previous months, as reported by the Bank of Russia (CBR).
• The retail lending growth, also reported by CBR, slowed down (for the first time in 3 years) to 22% y/y in December 2018, which might indicate declin- ing confidence in the higher-income households.
• Consumer confidence indicator reported by inFOM pollster dropped to 89 points in December from the 91-93 range seen throughout most of 2H18 and 106 at the beginning of last year.