Page 57 - Buy Russia - bne IntelliNews monthly magazine April 2017

bne April 2017
Yet these are not normal times, and as Putin appears to be talent-spotting for his post-2018 governing team, he is increas- ingly elevating personal favourites and contacts regardless of the customary lines of succession. If it is, for example, a figure such as Alexei Gromov, first deputy chief of staff of the Presi- dential Administration responsible for foreign affairs, or even – heaven forbid – Syromolotov, then it is also a signal both general and specific. It will underscore the extent to which Putin is strengthening the personalistic aspect of his regime, replacing technocrats with courtiers, elevating loyalty over experience. Specifically for the MID, it will make it increasingly just the executive arm of the Presidential Administration, the institution which has become the real locus of power under late Putinism.
After all, this is not just about Lavrov. In so many ways the avatar of MID, his decline has been both cause and result of his ministry’s marginalisation.
The wider implications are worrying. The MID’s formidable res- ervoir of knowledge about the outside world is being neglected, and FSB security briefings appear to have more weight than ambassadorial cables. The result is an impoverishment of policy. While often known more for its bombastic rhetoric and peevish insults – official spokeswoman Maria Zakharova has the kind of waspish partisanship that could get her a show
of her own on Fox News – the MID has still internalised the etiquette of the post-1945 global order more deeply than the Kremlin. By caring (a little) more about questions of legality and the mood of the global commons, it sometimes can act, in
Opinion 57 however limited a way, as a moderating force. The smaller its
traction on the policy process, the less its chance to do this.
So this will be one of the Russia-related topics to watch in 2017. Will Lavrov stay or go? And if he goes, who will replace him? With the United States looking likely to adopt an increas-
“Once the nabob atop the elephant leading the parade, now Lavrov follows behind with bucket and spade to clean up the mess”
ingly unilateralist, assertive and erratic foreign policy, Mos- cow will no longer be able safely to play the role of the loose cannon, while relying on Washington to be the sensible and restrained party. Instead, it will become all the more impor- tant that Russia demonstrate these characteristics, and it is more likely that they will have to come from the MID. It there- fore becomes of universal interest quite what happens to it.
Mark Galeotti is a senior research fellow at the Institute of International Relations Prague, a visiting fellow with the European Council on Foreign Relations, and the director of Mayak Intelligence. He blogs at In Moscow’s Shadows and tweets as @MarkGaleotti.
bne has a full roster of columnists and opinion-makers, among them:
Mark Galeotti Liam Halligan Suna Erdem
Chris Weafer David Cecire Ben Aris
Selected headlines from the past month:
· MACRO ADVISER: Nazarbayev puts it all on red
· ALACO DISPATCHES: Russia emerges as a wheat
superpower
· INVISIBLE HAND: Foreign investors in Russia
ignore Cold War rhetoric
You can find all bne’s comment at
www.intellinews.com/opinion
Russian Foreign Ministry's spokesman Maria Zakharova. www.shutterstock.com
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