Page 62 - Buy Russia - bne IntelliNews monthly magazine April 2017

62 I New Europe in Numbers bne April 2017
Russian inflation: CPI vs PPI and components y/y %
Russian inflation falls below 5% for the first time since Soviet days
24
18
12
6
0
inflation: CPI y/y
inflation: PPI y/y
CPI: Food y/y
CPI: Non-food y/y
CPI: Services y/y
Russia’s consumer price inflation has dropped below 5% for the first time since the fall of the Soviet Union more than a quarter of a century ago. Inflation was 4.6% y/y in February, according to Rosstat, down from 5% in January and in line with the Bloomberg consensus for the month.
The result will please the government as Russia is well on track to hit the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) target of 4% inflation, maybe as soon as the end of this year.
Moscow's Watcom shopping index off to bad start in 2017 as crisis bites
After rising strongly in the second half of 2016, the Watcom shopping index got off to its worst start in three years in the first weeks of 2017.
The Watcom shopping index ended 2016 on a strong note with footfall in Moscow’s leading shopping malls increasing to just below the 2015 levels. Retail sales have been recovering from the cataclysmic collapse in December 2014 when retail turnover was 15.5% lower than the same month the year before. Since then, as real incomes turned positive thanks to the success of the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) in bringing down inflation, retail sales improved, but continue to be lower y/y.
Turkey’s yearly inflation in the double digits again after five years
Turkey’s yearly consumer price inflation quickened to 10.13% in February, marking the first double-digit price growth since April 2012’s 11.14%, data from national statistics office TUIK showed on March 3.
The yearly inflation rate, which fell to 7% in November, has been climbing during the last three months in parallel with the country’s struggling currency. Turkish officials had already announced that yearly CPI inflation could reach the double digits in the first quarter of this year. Officials are confident that the currency will stabilise and that inflation will decline during the remainder of the year.
Slovak industry kicks off 2017 with robust production growth
Slovak industrial production continued its recovery at the start of 2017, as output grew 7.6% y/y in January, the statistics office reported on March 13.
The reading suggests a welcome acceleration as the year kicked off, following an erratic second half to 2016. A 3% gain in December represented something of a stabilisation following a deep drop in the summer, as holidays at German factories saw production sag in Slovakia.
Russian inflation: CPI vs PPI and components y/y %
Watcom Russian shopping index
Watcom Russian shopping index
2014 2015
2016 2017
700 650 600 550 500 450 400
15
10
5
inflation:CPI y/y
inflation:PPI y/y
Week
Turkey inflation: CPI vs PPI
Turkey inflation: CPI vs PPI
Slovakia industrial production y /y
Slovakia industrial production y/y
Industrial Production (y/y)
20.0
10.0
0.0
-10.0
www.bne.eu
IP y/y %
Inflation %
11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53
1 3 5 7 9
Index
Change y/y %
Jan 2015 March 2015
May 2016 July 2016
May 2015 July 2015
Sept 2016 Nov 2016
Sept 2015 Nov 2015
Jan 2017 Mar 2017
Jan 2016 March 2016
May 2016 July 2016
Sept 2016 Nov 2016
Jan 2017 Mar 2017
Jan 2015 March 2015
May 2015 July 2015
Sept 2015 Nov 2015
Jan 2016 March 2016
Jan 2015 Feb 2015
March 2015 April 2015
May 2015 June 2015
July 2015 August 2015
Sept 2015 Oct 2015
Nov 2015 Dec 2015
Jan 2016 Feb 2016
March 2016 April 2016
May 2016 June 2016
July 2016 August 2016
Sept 2016 Oct 2016
Nov 2016 Dec 2016
Jan 2017 Feb 2017
Mar 2017