Page 15 - GEORptDec21

3.2 Macro outlook
TBC Capital ups GDP and inflation forecasts for Georgia
TBC Capital has revised upward its forecast for this year’s GDP growth in Georgia, from 10.5% projected under its summer forecast to 11-11.5%. GDP would expand by 6% in 2022, TBC Capital chief economist Otar Nadaraia added, speaking to Business Media Georgia.
"There will definitely be double-digit economic growth in Georgia this year. We had a summer forecast of 10.5%, but today everything goes beyond our assumptions; the differential is expected to be around 1pp putting GDP growth above 11%. As for next year, our forecast is 6%. In 2022, exports, remittances and lending will moderate. There will also be a pronounced negative impact from the fiscal stimulus cycle next year,” Nadaraia said.
TBC Capital also revised upward its Georgia inflation forecast. The chief economist predicted that prices could rise as much as 14.5% this year, in end-of-year terms.
"As for inflation, our forecast was 13.8%. Now we have to increase it to 14.5%," Nadaraia stated.
The gas tariff increase from December 1 for legal entities in rural areas of Georgia would be most likely a precursor to a general gas price hike, according to a TBC Capital weekly research report.
15 GEORGIA Country Report December 2021 www.intellinews.com