Page 45 - GEORptDec21

VTB concludes by placing much more stock in the baseline scenario presented by the NBG than the alternate one, simply by virtue of the fact that the latter becomes highly unreliable very quickly as it moves away from the present time. As VTB concludes, “the alternative scenario is by design not intended to fulfill [a predictive] role”.
8.3 Stock market
Georgia market cap at USD727mn in May 2021
In May 2021, Georgia’s market capitalisation accounted for USD 727.45mn with daily turnover value of GEL 366.78 in February, according to the Georgian Stock Exchange (GSE).
8.4 International ratings
Georgia - Rating agency
as of June 2021
Bond rating: Moody’s
Ba2 (Stable)
Bond rating: Fitch
BB (Negative)
Bond rating: S&P
BB (Negative)
S&P downgrades Georgia’s outlook to negative
S&P rating agency revised its outlook on Georgia to negative from stable, citing external balance issues and the volatile political situation impeding necessary reforms on February 26.
The negative outlook reflects risks to Georgia's ability to generate adequate foreign exchange earnings to service its sizeable external liabilities over the rating agency's forecast horizon, S&P said in its statement.
The rating would be lowered in case Georgia’s growth outlook deteriorates (which would endanger consolidation of the external and public deficits) or if the external gap’s financing further shifts to debt-generating rather than equity-based instruments.
“The recovery in the tourism sector is likely to lag the global rollout of vaccines, and we do not project a return to 2019 levels of tourist activity through 2024. Coupled with a more volatile domestic political and policy environment, this could cloud the medium-term outlook for foreign investment inflows — important for growth and external financing, in our view,” S&P analysts explained.
S&P projects Georgia's real GDP will grow by 4% in 2021 after contracting by
45 GEORGIA Country Report December 2021 www.intellinews.com