Page 73 - bne_May 2021_20210501

bne May 2021
Opinion 73
“Eight months ago, protesters suggested that Borissov goes in peace. He stayed to give away five billion [levs], to continue ruling, to buy voters. And when he saw he was collapsing, he sharply flip-flopped. He said he wanted to go. But to leave the experts who would rule. Without taking responsibility for the lost 10 years. Doesn’t he have at least a little shame,” prominent PR expert and political commentator Lubomir Alamanov, another critic of the prime minister, wrote on Facebook.
Emil Jassim, a history teacher and member of Democratic Bulgaria, called Borissov’s decision to address people by video cowardice. “This Facebook live of Borissov was the press conference of the first parliamentary force. In front of his home, in the snow. And alone like a dog. A cowardly proposal for a consensus cabinet. This is the end,” Jassim wrote.
Ruling party benefitted from use of state resources
The Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) commented that the general election was run efficiently despite the difficult circumstances caused by the coronavirus pandemic, but that the massive use of state resources by the ruling party was concerning.
“Bulgaria’s parliamentary elections were competitive and efficiently run despite the difficult circumstances caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, and fundamental freedoms were respected. However, the massive use of state resources gave the ruling party a significant advantage, and a lack of editorial diversity was of concern,” OSCE said in a statement on April 5.
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It added that Bulgaria still needs to address key long-standing recommendations to bring election legislation in line with international standards and good practice.
The OSCE also raised concerns regarding the lack of editorial diversity and analytical coverage.
“The absence of investigative or analytical media reporting, together with political advertising in the guise of news, limited the ability of voters to make an informed choice. While public media is legally required to remain neutral and objective, public television offered little coverage of the political parties, but at the same time reported the activities of senior government officials in detail. Pressure on investigative reporters and a lack of investigation into attacks on journalists contributed to an atmosphere of self-censorship,” the OSCE commented.
It added that Gerb has gained wide exposure through
a number of state investments related to the coronavirus pandemic and infrastructure projects during the election campaign.
“The long-term observers and many others informed the Assembly’s observation delegation about some long-standing problems, such as allegations of vote-buying, ‘controlled’ voting, and voter intimidation, attempted particularly among economically and socially vulnerable groups,”
Alfred Heer, head of the PACE delegation, was quoted as saying in the statement.
Russian 'sanctions bubble' vs Ukrainian and Turkish fundamentals
Gunter Deuber in Vienna
Russia, Ukraine and Turkey are currently being
eyed critically by financial market investors, as the performance of currencies and local currency bonds in particular shows. That Russia is in the same basket with very vulnerable emerging markets is surprising at first.
Ukraine and Turkey are of course the usual suspects in market studies that try to identify the most vulnerable emerging or frontier markets in terms of macro fundamentals over the next 12-24 months in globally challenging conditions, together with countries such as Nigeria, South Africa or Argentina. Russia does not usually belong to such country samples.
It is therefore all the more interesting to take a closer look at the joint underperformance of these markets in recent
days. In part, there are common and overlapping drivers here, although country-specific details should not be underestimated.
In our view, the most important key message here is that Russia is probably the only one of the three countries where the relevant players do not overestimate their (geo)political and economic room for manoeuvre.
The market background in 2021 is substantially
different from 2020
In 2020, many emerging markets were able to come through the COVID-19 crisis reasonably unscathed, and national key interest rate and policy decisions did not have such a major impact on the financial markets – at least if they were within
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