Page 55 - TURKRptMay19

year, the statistics showed. Germany is the largest market for Turkish exports.
Most of Turkey’s $3.7bn trade surplus with UK would be ‘wiped out by No deal Brexit’. If the British ultimately leave the European Union without trade arrangements, most of Turkey’s $3.7bn trade surplus with the UK would be wiped out, Reuters reported on April 15, citing a United Nations report. Under a “hard Brexit”, Turkey and the UK would need to impose customs duties that could only be reversed by a replacement deal, undermining bilateral trade that reached $18.6bn last year.
5.2.2 Current account dynamics
Turkey’s current account gap shrinks while markets fret over elusive V-shaped recovery. Turkey has posted a third straight monthly current account deficit but the year on year comparison showed a big shrinkage in the gap given the major impact on import volumes of the Turkish lira crisis. The country’s central bank announced on March 11 that in February the account was in negative territory to the tune of $718mn. However, that was a stark reduction on the deficit of $4.49bn seen in February 2018.
The February 2019 figure is lower than the figure that was anticipated by a Reuters poll of 15 economists, the median of which on April 8 estimated a deficit of $850mn, with estimates ranging from $500mn to $1.48bn . Turkey’s annual current account deficit is expected to stand at $18.5bn this year, according to the median produced by a separate Reuters poll of 12 economists. Estimates in that survey ranged between $11.7bn and $23.3bn. The median estimate in the previous Reuters poll for 2019 was $19bn.
The annual current account deficit shrank significantly last year, falling to $27.8bn from $47.35bn in 2017. The lira crisis that peaked in August caused a sudden stop in inflows via the country’s balance of payments. Consequently, Turkey posted a cumulative current account surplus of $7.55bn for an interrupted four months from August to November. It fell into recession in the
55 TURKEY Country Report May 2019 www.intellinews.com