Page 94 - TURKRptMay19

9.0 Industry & Sectors 9.1 Sector news
9.1.1 Oil & gas sector news
“Very high chances” China, India and Turkey will get renewed Iran oil sanctions waivers from US: energy consultant. Energy consultant SVB Energy International has concluded that there is a big possibility that the US will grant renewed sanctions waivers to China, India and Turkey allowing the trio to continue importing Iranian oil without fear of incurring penalties from Washington. Washington is attempting to curtail Iran’s crude oil shipments to below 1mn b/d from May and exported consignments of Iranian oil are averaging below one million barrels per day so far this month, according to Refinitiv Eikon data and two other companies that track such exports, Reuters said. That’s lower than at least 1.1mn b/d as estimated for March. Oil prices have risen 30% this year to $71 a barrel partly on collapsing Venezuelan oil output and sanctioned Iranian exports. Iran no longer reports its oil production figures to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). It is widely thought Iran was exporting at least 2.5mn b/d of oil in April 2018, the month before US President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew the US from the multilateral nuclear deal with Iran, paving the way for the sanctions regime.
Three countries holding waivers for Iranian oil imports have cut shipments to zero: US. Three of eight importers granted 180-day sanctions waivers by Washington last November to buy oil from Iran have now cut their shipments to zero, a US official said on April 2. The official did not name the countries, but in early February Iran criticised Greece and Italy for, without explanation, not buying shipments of Iranian crude despite their possession of waivers. Tehran said Turkey was the only European country buying its oil. The other five waiver holders are China, India, Taiwan, South Korea and Japan. The US has forecast that improved global oil market conditions will help it reduce Iranian crude exports further as it pursues its goal of eventually reducing them to zero in line with a sanctions regime designed to strangle Iran’s economy to the point that the Iranians are forced to renegotiate their Middle East activities and policies. The Trump administration is in consultations with the importers of Iranian oil which hold waivers ahead of the May 2 deadline when the exemptions expire. Brian Hook, the special US envoy for Iran, claimed US oil sanctions had removed around 1.5mn barrels of Iranian oil exports from the market since May 2018. “This has denied the [Iranian] regime access to well over $10bn in revenue—a loss of at least $30mn a day,” he said. Some analysts predict that the White House will likely agree to extend the waivers to the remaining five importers of Iranian oil to assuage top buyers China and India and lower the chance of higher oil prices. China, India, Japan, South Korea and Turkey are likely to be given waivers that could cap Iran’s crude oil exports at about 1.1mn barrels per day, US-based analysts at Eurasia Group said in January. Hook said a total of 23 importers that once took Iranian oil had cut imports to zero.
94 TURKEY Country Report May 2019 www.intellinews.com