Page 13 - TURKRptDec19

Brooks, along with Timothy Ash of Bluebay Asset Management, was in Turkey prior to the March 31 local elections to attend the Uludag Economy Summit. There, they called on the Turks to make a clear return to the Western fold. That was before S-400 missiles arrived from the Kremlin for deployment in Turkey.
Fake sticks and carrots​. Brooks has stuck to his Teflon-fair-value estimate since then but Ash has been variously praising and hitting out at the track taken by the Turkish government. The problem with the stick and carrot where populists are concerned is that they don’t just see a stick and a carrot, they also see a fake stick and a fake carrot, and they are not to be told which is which.
Gungor, meanwhile, on November 8 remained a good little troll. Those reporting the collective family suicides were “creating a perception”, she said. Got that?
In a previous column, Gungor on November 6 heralded coming legislation delivering ​jail sentences for those who “create perceptions” of the Turkish economy​.
2.8​ ​TURKEY AGAIN AT CROSSROADS: Erdogan administration facing possibly decisive economic and political horizons
Notes from BlueBay Asset Management economist Timothy Ash on his latest visit to Turkey.
I visited Istanbul and Ankara this week and met various officials from the Treasury, CBRT [Central Bank of Republic of Turkey], international financial institutions, banks, politicians, journalists, diplomats, analysts—the usual suspects, you know who you are! Here are my Turkey trip notes.
The ruling AKP administration is still smarting/coming to terms with their losses earlier in the year in the municipal elections​. These elections seem to have energised the opposition both inside and outside the ruling AKP. Indeed, within, or now without the AKP, encouraging high profile departures from the AKP, including former PM Ahmet Davutoglu and former first deputy prime minister Ali Babacan. Both are now trying to forge political parties/forces to challenge the ruling AKP. Many spoke about the mood within the ruling AKP towards greater criticism of the leadership—open dissent against the party line.
The repeat Istanbul elections were perhaps most significant though as they proved to many that the AKP, and particularly President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, is beatable in a political campaign​. I think they also proved to many that democracy is alive and kicking in Turkey, given widespread prior concern about the over-concentration of power around Erdogan and his executive presidency. While ​there might be concern around rising populist policies and autocracy globally, the political mood in Turkey seems to have now turned against that​, and the next political iteration is most likely to be a reversal of this—an iteration to the likes of [opposition party Mayor of Istanbul Ekrem] Imamoglu or even Babacan. The longer term trend seems to be positive in terms of politics. The population have seen the vision of centralised leadership and have come to the conclusion that they don’t really want that—they actually prefer the concept of Western liberal democracy and came out in their millions to vote for candidates representing that in the municipal elections.
The ruling AKP seemed to be rocked initially by the municipal elections, and
13​ TURKEY Country Report​ December 2019 ​ ​www.intellinews.com