Page 17 - TURKRptOct21

3.0 Macro Economy
Main Macro Indicators Q1-19 Q2 Q3 Q4 2019 Q1-20 Q2 Q3 Q4 2020 Q1-20 Q2 Q3
GDP Growth (y/y, %) -2.5 -1.6 1.0 6.0 0.9 4.4 -10.4 6.3 6.2 1.8 7.2 21.7 -
Electricity Consumption (y/y) -1.5 0.4 -1.5 0.5 -0.6 3.3 -11.5 3.6 4.5 0.2 5.7 25.8 11.5
Employed (active, mn) 27.0 26.9 26.9 26.7 26.7 25.1 20.8 25.2 25.1 24.1 25.8 26.6 -
Population(mn) - - - - 83.2 - - - - 83.6 - - -
GDP(percapita,$) - - - - 9,127 - - - - 8,599 - - -
GDP(current,TRYbn) 926 1,030 1,157 1,205 4,318 1,071 1,038 1,414 1,524 5,047 1,389 1,581 -
GDP (current prices, $bn) 172 175 204 209 760 176 153 197 192 717 188 189 -
CPI (%, eop) 19.7 15.7 9.3 11.8 11.8 11.9 12.6 11.8 14.6 14.6 16.2 17.5 19.6
Lira-loans (%, y/y, Sep 24) 3.0 -0.5 4.0 13.9 13.9 19.1 39.4 46.4 43.3 43.3 34.4 17.1 12.8
Policy Rate (%, active, eop) 25.5 23.9 16.3 11.4 11.4 9.3 7.6 11.1 17.0 17.0 19.0 19.0 18.0
CA Balance ($bn, July) -1.88 -1.29 5.92 -1.07 1.67 -8.86 -12.4 -8.73 -7.35 -37.3 -7.3 -5.8 -0.7
CA Balance/GDP (%) -1.1 -0.7 2.9 -0.5 0.2 -5.0 -8.1 -4.4 -3.8 -5.2 -3.9 -3.1 -
Budget (TRYbn, Jul) -36 -42 -7 -38 -124 -30 -80 -31 -32 -173 23 -55 -5
Budget Balance/GDP (%) -3.9 -4.1 -0.6 -3.1 -2.9 -2.8 -7.7 -2.2 -2.1 -3.4 1.6 -3.5 -
USD/TRY (eop) 5.56 5.79 5.65 5.95 5.95 6.61 6.85 7.72 7.44 7.44 8.24 8.70 8.89
Turkey's official GDP growth was released at 22% y/y for Q2.
According to the updated medium term programme released on September 5, the government is planning to release the 2021 official GDP growth figure at 9%.
Double-digit is loading.
4.0 Real Economy 4.1 Industrial production
Turkey: Production indicators
y/y, % Q1-20 Q2 Q3 Q4 2020 Q1-21 Q2 Jul Aug Sep Q3
Official GDP Growth 4.4 -10.4 6.3 6.2 1.8 7.2 21.7
Electricity Consumption 3.3 -11.5 3.6 4.5 0.2 5.7 25.8 11.7 17.9 4.5 11.5
Employed (active, mn) 25.1 20.8 25.2 25.1 24.1 25.8 26.6
Industry (≈20% of GDP) 7.5 -15.9 8.1 12.1 3.1 11.7 40.5
Industrial Production Index
(unadjusted) 5.7 -16.6 8.5 10.2 2.2 11.3 40.4 -2.3
Vehicle Production -4.8 -51.6 5.4
11.3 16.1 24.8
-10.0 3.5 68.1 -43.2 40.2
Crude Steel Production 9.6 -16.8 16.3
6.0 9.5 35.3 2.5 7.1
White Goods Production 0.0 -26.5 15.4
3.5 36.5 63.1 -24.1 11.6
17 TURKEY Country Report October 2021 www.intellinews.com