Page 48 - RusRPTNov20

Coronavirus also led the middle class to shrink considerably ​as lost incomes pushed members of the working class into poverty. Before the pandemic, the Higher School of Economics (HSE) calculated that 24% of the Russian population belonged to the middle class. During the pandemic, 6.1% of these people to become poor. As a share of Russia’s total population, the middle class is now 1.5 percentage points smaller than before the pandemic. Meanwhile, the share of poor Russians rose from 12.3% at end of 2019 to 19-20% after the COVID lockdowns.
4.5.2​ Income dynamics
Real disposable incomes fell 4.8% in the third quarter ​compared to the same period last year. Rosstat has also revised the figures for the first and second quarters downwards. In Q1, real disposable incomes grew 0.7% (down from 1.2% initially), and in Q2 they fell 8.4% (down from -8% initially). This means that from January through September, real disposable incomes have fallen 4.3% y-o-y. The Russian government is counting on positive dynamics in the fourth quarter, with the economy ministry predicting that real disposable incomes will stem their losses and decline by 3% in total in 2020.
Real wages unexpectedly increased +2.3% y/y in July​ against the +0.1% y/y Bloomberg consensus estimate. As uncertainty abates, consumer demand is likely to gather strength.
48 ​RUSSIA Country Report​ November 2020 www.intellinews.com