Page 68 - RusRPTNov20

6.1.1 ​Budget dynamics - results
Russian budget remains in deficit, but revenues improve.​The Finance Ministry has published budget figures for September showing a further improvement in tax collection. Although budget revenues were down 14% y/y, this marked an improvement from the 28% y/y decline seen in August.
Oil and gas revenues were down 36% y/y in September compared with a 42% y/y contraction in August (and a 36% y/y drop in 9m20), supported by the oil price recovery (Brent averaged almost $45/bbl in August, down 25% y/y) and the weaker ruble.
Non-oil revenues slid 8% y/y after slipping almost 23% y/y in August (though they were up 3.7% y/y in 9m20 thanks to the RUB1.1 trillion of revenues from the Sberbank deal). Total revenues for 9m20 came in at RUB13.2 trillion, down 12% y/y.
The government again revised lower its spending figure for the prior month.
For August, it reduced expenditures by RUB0.1 trillion from the initial estimate, taking growth down from 26% y/y to 16% y/y. This indicates that the government was not able to spend all the money it was planning to.
Spending climbed 27% y/y in September, though given the delays in execution, this figure is highly likely to be revised lower. Nevertheless, based on the available figures, spending reached RUB15.1 trillion in 9m20, up 27% y/y.
The budget registered a deficit of RUB209bn in September and RUB1.9 trillion in 9m20.
According to the revised figures, the government now expects a full-year deficit of RUB4.7 trillion (4.4% of GDP), most of, which will be financed via local borrowing on the OFZ market, where net issuance is targeted to reach RUB4.4 trillion this year.
The Finance Ministry has stepped up its placement of OFZs in the primary market in recent months. It placed a whopping RUB346bn in the first week of October (gross) and has placed RUB2.67 trillion YTD (net).
68 ​RUSSIA Country Report​ November 2020 www.intellinews.com