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terms.
Under a scenario with a negative external shock formulated by the central bank, Georgian GDP would only rise by 2% in 2019, 2.5% in 2020 and 3.5% in 2021. Under a compiled strong demand scenario, the growth rate would accelerate to 6% in 2019 and gradually ease to 5% in 2021 .
4.0 Real Economy 4.1 Industrial production
Industrial production accelerates 9% y/y in 1Q19
Georgia’s industrial production increased 9% y/y in the first quarter of 2019, expanding from a 7% y/y and 3.5% y/y rise in the fourth quarter and third quarter of 2018, respectively, according to the National Statistics Office of Georgia.
Production expanded faster for both manufacturing (6.4%% in 4Q18 from 0.4% in 3Q) and water supply sewerage, waste management and remediation activities (8.7% in 4Q18 from 5.1% in 3Q. Meanwhile, electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply output rose at a slower rate (11% in 4Q18 from 14.4% in 3Q). Conversely, output for mining and quarrying shrank (-3.5% in 4Q18 from 5.2% in 3Q). Industrial production y/y in Georgia averaged 12.7% from 2000 to 2019.
17 GEORGIA Country Report August 2019 www.intellinews.com