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Opinion
April 19, 2019 www.intellinews.com I Page 21
BlueBay was again among the asset manag-
ers Albayrak held private meetings with over
the weekend. However, Ash has not given away whether he was at the meeting, but noted: “I spent last week at the IMF Spring meetings where Turkey was really the hot talking point, with deputy PM, Albayrak in town. Indeed I spent most of the week meeting Turkish and US connections trying to gauge where we are in the US-Turkey relationship, and frankly came away the most concerned I have been in 20 years covering the country. At point here there seems to be a chasm opening up between the US and Turkish perspec- tives of the problems/issues in the relationship. Much has been made of the S400 [Turkey missile purchase from Russia] issue as the touch paper for the current tensions, but they now run deep from both sides across a whole host of topics.”
In fact, Albayrak is not deputy PM as there is no PM post in Turkey any more given the executive presidency Erdogan has taken on.
“Getting too close to US foes”
But let’s quote Ash’s note at length as it gives
a gateway into where the fraught Ankara-Wash- ington relationship is at. Ash wrote: “Turkey is getting too close to US foes — Iran, Russia and Venezuela. Erdogan’s personal friendship with President Maduro of Venezuela is inexplicable to the US body politic, and this is especially notable for people in DC, given that ensuring a democratic transition in Venezuela is currently a top prior-
ity for the Trump administration. On Iran — the Zarrab/Atilla cases [relating to Iran sanctions busting the US says was linked to Turkish public lender Halkbank] were particularly damaging in terms of the US-Turkey relationship, with some in the US identifying this as an example of Turkey’s willingness to flaunt the US sanctions regime around Iran. Possible sanctions for the Zarrab/ Atilla case are still awaited, and indeed expected, the only question being their extent/scope.
“Generally the US sees its interests in Syria, not always aligning with those of Turkey — tensions over US support for ethnic-Kurdish groups.
“Probably a lot of the current tensions really relate to what Ankara sees as the generally ‘unsupportive’ (I am being diplomatic here)
US response to the failed coup in July 2016
— as compared to the response from Russia, Venezuela (and actually the UK). Suspicions run deep (at the highest level in my view) in Turkey as to whether the US was somehow behind the coup attempt (or knew about it beforehand and failed to give the Erdogan administration the ‘heads up’), and the presence of the leader of the Gulenist movement, Fetullah Gulen, in self- imposed exile in the US just does not help.
“US wants to pivot... to a new arc”
“There is a view in Turkey that the US wants
to pivot away from Turkey as its key NATO ally on its Southern flank, to a new arc of Greece, ROC, Egypt and Israel, against the threat from Russia and Iran. These view are propagated by Eurasianists in Turkey itself.
“I am sure that I will have missed a few sore spots from either side, herein, but across the board the tensions/suspicions now run really deep. The most immediate issue seems to be S400s and the future of the F35 [fighter plane] project [which the US is threatening to kick Turkey out of if it acquires S400s], or Turkey’s participation therein.
“What is striking though is that both sides now seem resigned to a scenario where S400s are delivered in Turkey, and that the US proceeds
to sanction Turkey for that particular arms purchase. Note that Congressional CAATSA legislation passed in 2017 to counter ‘significant’ Russian arms sales, will likely capture the
sale of S400s, with the arrival of the weapons system in Turkey requiring action from the US executive branch from a predetermined list of actions (pick list) – unless the WH deems that ‘national security’ concerns deserve the use of a presidential veto. My sense is that the sentiment in Congress is so negative now towards Turkey that it would be very difficult for the WH to veto any such transaction, and especially when it