Page 20 - IRANRptMar20

5.1.1 ​current account dynamics
Iran current account, USD mn
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Balance of payments overall
-947
21,436
12,213
13,189
8,561
2,233
Current account balance
27,554
58,507
23,362
25,105
15,861
1,237
16,388
15,816
Current account balance: % of GDP
5.66
10.08
3.87
5.43
3.12
0.32
3.92
Total Exports
130,500
95,500
82,000
88,800
63,000
Total Imports
62,661
59,999
51,914
48,138
52,007
40,097
41,945
54,459
Trade Balance
68,692
42,049
32,291
35,231
20,5000
Source: CEIC, Central Bank of Iran
Iran running a current account surplus and has over $100bn of gross official reserves, says IMF
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated in March that the government held $112bn of foreign assets and reserves. It also indicated that Iran was running a current account surplus.​ The figures imply that Iran might withstand the sanctions without an external payments crisis.
But the IMF also noted that Tehran was having difficulty accessing some of its reserves as its relations with foreign banks were constrained by the threat of US sanctions. Meanwhile, sanctions could cut the current account surplus sharply given the severe disruption they are causing to trade.
The IMF estimated in its World Economic Outlook released last October that Iran’s current account surplus would see a decline from 2.2% of GDP in 2017 to 1.3% in 2018 and 0.3% in 2019.
5.1.2 ​Import/export dynamics
Trade between Iran and Turkey sinks 57% in January
Iran’s bilateral trade with Turkey officially declined by 57.23% y/y to $335.7mn (at the unofficial exchange rate) in January, Tehran’s ​Financial Tribune​ has reported, citing Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) data.
Iran exported $118.47mn worth of goods to Turkey, marking a 78.94% y/y decline, while Turkey exported $217.23mn of goods to Iran, a figure that was down 2.25% y/y, according to the Turkish agency.
Iran was recorded as the 18th biggest export destination for Turkey and the 32nd biggest exporter of goods to Turkey in January.
The extent of the impact of US sanctions on trade between Turkey and Iran is unknown but must be substantial. In January last year, the US was yet to adopt its policy of attempting to drive all Iranian oil exports off world markets. Turkey, short of its own energy resources, has long been a customer for oil from its neighbour.
When they arrive, the figures for trade between the two countries in February could be far worse than the January data given the substantial coronavirus outbreak in Iran which has caused Turkey to in the past week suspend a huge amount of trade with Iranian counter-parties. Turkish Airlines, meanwhile, has halted all flights to and from Iran until further notice.
20​ IRAN Country Report​ March 2020 www.intellinews.com