Page 16 - GEORptNov19
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With the Georgian lari depreciating and triggering further price increases, the update significantly raised the inflation forecasts for 2019 and 2020.
It added: “The current account deficit narrowed to the equivalent of 6.2% of GDP in the first quarter of 2019, as higher reexports drove merchandize export growth by 12.8%, and as imports fell by 4.7% with the winding down of energy investment projects.
“A surplus in service trade equalled 10.1% of GDP in the first quarter of the year. With merchandise exports expected to remain robust, this Update projects narrower current account deficits than those published in [the previous forecast from the ADB].”
4.0 Real Economy 4.1 Industrial production
Industrial production rises 2.9% y/y in 2Q19
Georgia’s industrial production increased 2.9% y/y in the second quarter of 2019, easing from a 5.4% y/y and 7% y/y in the first quarter of 2019 and fourth quarter of 2018, respectively, according to the National Statistics Office of Georgia.
Production expanded at a slower pace for manufacturing ( 3.1% in 2Q19 from 6.1 in 1Q19) and electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply (2.7% in 2Q from 6.4% in 1Q). Meanwhile, mining and quarrying production shrank less (-3.5% in 2Q from -4.4%). Conversely, water supply sewerage, waste management and remediation activities rose at a faster rate (13.9% in 2Q19 from 5.3% in 1Q).
Industrial production y/y in Georgia averaged 12.5% from 2000 to 2019.
16 GEORGIA Country Report November 2019 www.intellinews.com
