Page 8 - AfrElec Week 07

AfrElec RENEWABLES AfrElec
Coronavirus threatens solar and wind in 2020
GLOBAL
THE coronavirus outbreak could cause a 10-15% fall in new global wind installations in 2020 as component production has ground to a halt in recent weeks.
A report from Wood Mackenzie warned that although Hubei Province is not a centre of Chinese wind turbine production, quarantine measures and travel restrictions could “impact an already tight supply situation” for key compo- nents, senior consultant Xiaoyang Li said.
“Due to an already tight supply of key compo- nents such as turbine blades and main bearings before the COVID-19 outbreak, first-quarter production delays have already reduced annual output of those components by about 10%,” she said. Falling production is “bad news” for key wind markets such as China and the US, said Wood Mackenzie, as there is considerable push to complete projects by the end of 2020 in order to gain access to government subsidies.
“Components without pre-existing bottle- necks, such as generators and converters, should be able to recover from first-quarter delays if the outbreak is brought under control in the next few months”.
“Based on these two possibilities, we estimate
production delays across the wind turbine sup- ply chain will result in a 10% to 50% decrease in 2020 wind installations in China, compared to our fourth-quarter 2019 wind power outlook, which was at 28 GW of capacity,” she added.
Across Asia, wind projects will need to find other sources of components, such as India, Vietnam and Southern Europe, said Wood Mackenzie.
Meanwhile, the global solar industry faces similar slowdowns.
“Module production in Southeast Asia and the US usually carry one to two months of sup- plementary material inventory on-site,” said Wood MacKenzie analyst Xiaojing Sun.
“If the production interruption in mainland China lasts longer than one month, factories in Southeast Asia and the US will start to see sup- ply shortages that will reduce their production output.”
The US EIA forecasts that 18.5GW of new wind capacity will come online in 2020 in the US, while 13.5GW of utility-scale PV will be connected. With the coronavirus cutting Chines solar and wind component production, these
figures are unlikely to be
met. ™
grid within three to 12 months from approval, and would let municipalities procure their own power from independent power producers.
The president made the announcement in his State of the Nation Address on February 13..
“We will ... put in place measures to enable municipalities in good financial standing to procure their own power from independent power producers,” he said, to applause.
The president said that, over the next
few months, government would implement measures to “fundamentally change the trajectory of energy generation in our country”. Load shedding would remain a possibility for the immediate future, he added.
While SA’s energy regulator would continue to register small-scale generation
for own use of under 1MW without the need for licences, the president also promised the regulator would ensure that all applications by commercial and industrial users to produce electricity for own use above 1MW are processed within 120 days.
“It should be noted that there is now no limit to installed capacity above 1MW,” he said.
Eskom has about ZAR450bn ($30.1bn)
of debt and does not earn enough from electricity sales at current prices and volumes
POLICY
Ramaphosa announced
opening of SA generation
market
South Africa plans to open up electricity generation to other players a move that has been welcome by key industry leaders but one that is expected to end the monopoly of struggling state utility firm Eskom.
SA President Cyril Ramaphosa in his annual state of the nation address on February 13 a raft of steps that will allow firms to generate electricity for their own use.
The Minerals Council South Africa recently raised concerns that power inconsistency in the country was negatively affecting the mining industry.
“The situation is desperate, and demands urgent action by all leaders of government departments to make possible and drastically streamline regulatory processes to enable the rapid establishment of self-generation facilities to supplement independent power producers,” said CEO Roger Baxter.
The Minerals Council’s latest assessment is that some 869MW of solar power and up to another 800MW of conventional power
NEWS IN BRIEF
could be added to the national grid by mining companies over the next three to four years, with more available from other energy intensive sectors.
Early this month, Minister of Mineral Resources and Energy Gwede Mantashe told delegates at the Mining Indaba in Cape Town that government had conceded that it must allow mining companies to produce energy for their own use.
He said while global economic growth was estimated to rise from 2.9% in 2019 to 3.4% in 2021, South Africa’s projected economic growth for the year ahead was expected to again fall under 1%, owing to structural constraints and power outages.
POLICY
Ramaphosa allows
municipalities to buy from
independent producers
South African President Cyril Ramaphosa has said that government will start the procurement of emergency power from projects that can deliver electricity into the
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Week 07 20•February•2020