Page 23 - UKRRptFeb21

The World Bank revised upward its forecast for Ukraine's growth in 2021 to 3.1%​ from its earlier forecast of 1.5% issued in October, according to the January 2021 World Bank's Global Economic Prospects, Interfax reported on January 6.
The World Bank also estimates of the fall of the Ukrainian economy this year at 5.5%.
The official forecast for growth is for a fall in Ukraine's GDP in 2020 by 4.8% at the end of the year and 4.6% of positive growth in 2021, according to the Ministry for Development of Economy, Trade and Agriculture of Ukraine
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) had previously separately forecast the economy to decline by 6% last year, but towards the end of the year it improved its estimates, to about 5%, predicting a recovery in 2021 by 4.2%. The updated macroeconomic forecast of the NBU will be announced on January 21.
Ukraine’s real GDP plunged 3.5% y/y in 3Q20 to UAH1,157bn ($41.9bn), improving from​ ​a 11.4% y/y plunge in 2Q20​, the State Statistics Service reported on December 21, confirming​ ​its preliminary estimate​. The economy grew 8.5% qoq seasonally adjusted (after dropping 9.7% qoq in 2Q20).
The economy was weighed down by a gross fixed investment plunge of 23.8% y/y in 3Q20 (vs. a 22.3% y/y drop in 2Q20). At the same time, private consumption inched up 1.0% y/y (vs. a 10.4% y/y plunge in 2Q20). In addition, public consumption advanced 8.2% y/y (vs. a 1.7% y/y drop in 2Q20). Real exports slid 7.2% y/y, while imports fell 10.1% y/y.
On the production side, the economy was mostly affected by falls in (1) agriculture of 11.1% y/y in 3Q20 (vs. a 29.1% y/y decline in 2Q20), (2) manufacturing of 5.6% (vs. 14.7 y/y drop in 2Q20) and (3) transportation of 8.4% y/y (vs. a 14.7% y/y drop in 2Q20). At the same time, construction picked up 8.2% y/y (vs. a 6.2% y/y decline in 2Q20), while trade advanced 9.7% y/y (vs. a 5.6% y/y drop in 3Q20).
23​ UKRAINE Country Report​ February 2021 ​ ​www.intellinews.com