Page 46 - UKRRptFeb21

110.3 at the end of January. The GDP warrants have risen 7% YTD. Dragon raises valuation after increasing 2021 economic growth estimate to 5.3% from 4.5%. The government is unlikely to buy back warrants at prices above 100 cents for political reasons. At the same time, a more likely exchange for bonds wouldn’t benefit Ukraine if warrant prices rise faster than bonds. “We think the government will wait for more favourable market conditions, which could be measured by a declining warrants-to- sovereign price ratio” Ukraine bought back 10% of the outstanding warrants last August.
Ukraine’s state and state-guaranteed debt rose 7.1% m/m to $90.3bn as of December 31​, the Finance Ministry reported on January 26. State domestic debt surged 11.3% m/m to $35.4bn, while state foreign debt jumped 5.2% m/m to $44.5bn. State-guaranteed debt increased 1.9% m/m to $10.4bn.​ ​In UAHterms, overall state debt gained 6.4% m/m in December to UAH2,552bn, or 62.9% of Ukraine’s expected GDP in 2020.
In 2020, the total national debt of Ukraine grew by 6.98% in US dollars and by 19.16% in hryvnias.
According to the Ministry of Finance, the share of liabilities in US dollars of the overall government debt in October fell to 36.16%, in SDRs – to 14.21%, in Japanese yen – to 0.64%, while in euros it expanded to 13. 94% and in hryvnias it increased to 35.05%.
The official US dollar rate, at, which the Ministry of Finance calculates the debt, amounted to UAH28.27/$1 in December, compared to UAH28.47/$1 in November and UAH23.69/$1 at the beginning of 2020.
7.0​ FX
Ukraine FX
Jan 2020
Feb 2020
Mar 2020
Apr 2020
May 2020
Jun 2020
Jul 2020
Aug 2020
Sept 2020
Oct 2020
Nov 2020
Dec 2020
Currency (units per EUR) (average)
26.78
26.84
29.34
29.54
29.16
30.03
31.32
32.55
33.03
33.35
33.53
34.29
Currency (units per USD) (average)
24.12
24.58
26.52
27.18
26.77
26.79
27.33
27.52
28.02
28.33
28.31
28.17
The dollar remains king in Ukraine, with the hryvnia 61% undervalued against the US currency​, The Economist reports in its annual Big Mac index. In Ukraine, a Big Mac costs UAH62, or $2.21. In the US the same hamburger goes for $5.66. Using this index, Ukraine has the world’s fifth most undervalued currency. The cheaper currencies are: South African rand – 61.9%; Turkish lira – 64.5%; Russian ruble – 68%; and Lebanese pound – 68.7%.
Despite coronavirus travel controls, worker remittances are expected to be near last year’s level of about $12bn.​ Ukraine’s State Border Guard
46​ UKRAINE Country Report​ February 2021 ​ ​www.intellinews.com