Page 12 - IRANRptSep20

pandemic, it now looks like a best-case scenario.”
Russia, Turkey, India, Brazil, South Africa and Indonesia face risks that are only slightly less acute than those of the countries with the most “perfect storm” potential, the report added.
Belarus, Bulgaria and Serbia, as well as Congo and Ethiopia, are among countries to have been shaken by anti-government protests in recent days. There was a drop-off in unrest in emerging and frontier markets in March, according to Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED), after the widespread introduction of lockdowns. But with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasting that growth in emerging markets and developing economies will contract by 1% this year, certain simmering pots of tension may come to the boil.
Hribernik used five factors to determine the ability of 142 countries to bounce back from the pandemic. That was combined with data from past protests to determine projections of civil unrest. “It’s a tinderbox” Hribernik said. “It doesn’t take as much as it did a year ago.”
12​ IRAN Country Report September 2020 www.intellinews.com