Page 21 - IRANRptSep20

Iran’s fertility rate drops to 1.7 as economy shrinks
Pandemic ‘could leave up to quarter of Iran’s workforce jobless’
independently fight its way out of the current situation, with local companies contracted to develop large assets in the south-west. Tehran has made positive noises about the prospect of sanctions being lifted; however, there is little prospect of such a change while US President Donald Trump remains in office.
Speaking in mid-July, Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh was quoted by official energy industry media outlet Shana as saying: “It is true that our oil production has now decreased because of the unfair sanctions. But it will not remain like this forever. We should increase capacity so that anytime needed, we enter the market with full force and revive our share.” Zanganeh highlighted the prolific West Karoun oil region, noting that the Islamic Republic would seek to ramp up output from reservoirs shared with neighbouring Iraq.
Iran’s total fertility rate (TRF) dropped to 1.7 in the year to March 2020 from 2 in the year to March 2019. Couples continued to refrain from having children or additional children given the country’s challenging economic situation, latest data from the Statistical Centre of Iran (SCI) make clear.
The Islamic Republic’s TFR has been on a downward trajectory for more than three decades, following a massive boost seen in the years that came soon after the 1979 revolution. Efforts brought in to control the population in the 1980s and 1990s have been observed by the United Nations as “working too well”, with some estimates showing a 70% drop in the TFR in the past three decades. Both the strain of economic decline brought about by waves of sanctions—the latest being the crushing measures brought in by the US Trump administration since 2018—and emigration have also played big roles in pushing down the number of babies being born in Iran, a country of 84mn.
Gilan Province registered the lowest TFR at 1.1.
At the other end of the scale, impoverished Sistan and Baluchestan Province, largely populated by Iran’s Sunni minority and bordering Pakistan, saw the highest TFR at 3.4. However, that compares to 3.7 in the year to March 2018. Efforts by the Iranian government to turn the tide on the TRF decline have included in 2016 the supreme leader’s office promoting the merits of multiple offspring in poster campaigns in Tehran and other cities. But that particular effort met with a lot of ridicule from those suffering from a tanking economy and unrealistic property prices.
With the decline in new births, Iran is hurtling towards having an aged society faster than official estimates have up to now predicted.
As many as 6.43mn Iranians, making up around a quarter of the workforce of Iran, could find themselves jobless because of the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, according to a study by Iran’s Parliament Research Centre.
A minimum of 2.87mn jobs would be lost amid the health and economic emergency, the study also concluded. Given the added difficulties caused to US-sanctions-hit Iran by the virus outbreak, its economy would shrink between 7.5% and 11%, it also said.
21​ IRAN Country Report September 2020 www.intellinews.com