Page 113 - RusRPTJul21

In addition, the possibility of a complete ban on the export of gasoline is being considered. A softer measure is an increase in the standard of fuel sales on the exchange, which now stands at 11%.
According to the RTS, the approaching vacation period will lead to an even greater increase in demand for gasoline (from 10% to 20%), and if urgent measures are not taken, prices will continue to rise and there will be a threat of shortages.
According to Rosstat, from May 31 to June 6, 2021, average prices for AI-92 gasoline increased by 8 kopecks - up to 45.2 rubles. per liter. Gasoline AI-95 has risen in price by 13 kopecks. - up to 48.88 rubles. per liter, and the cost of AI-98 gasoline increased by 19 kopecks. - up to 55.63 rubles. per liter.
Since the beginning of the year, Ai-92 has become more expensive by 1.74 rubles, Ai-95 - by 1.64 rubles, Ai-98 - by 1.73 rubles.
9.1.2 Automotive sector news
Car and LCV sales in Russia (excluding Mercedes and BMW) increased 134% y/y to 147,378 units in May and 39% y/y to 663,312 units in 5mo21, as stated in the recent report by the Association of European Businesses (AEB). This strong y/y growth was mostly due to the effect of the low base, with some additional support coming from a pull-forward demand amid growing concerns about a potential price increase and the availability of certain car models. We continue to expect that the market growth will slow in 2H21, with FY21 growth in low-to-mid single digits.
The UAZ sales of Sollers (Hold; 12-mo TP 250; ETR +12%) increased 62% y/y to 2,199 units in May and 9% y/y to 10,360 units in 5mo21. Meanwhile, Ford Transit sales (through a JV with Ford, consolidated by Sollers) remained strong, 111% higher y/y to 1,540 units in May and up 95% to 6,535 units in 5mo21. Nevertheless, we remain cautious on Sollers, mostly due to what we see as the bleak long-term prospects of the UAZ brand.
The AvtoVAZ-Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi alliance continued to dominate the market, with a 37.5% market share in January-May. AvtoVAZ’s Lada remained the leading brand, accounting for a quarter of the market, with its sales increasing 146% y/y to 38,284 units in May and 53% y/y to 160,123 units in 5mo21.
Among other Russian producers, GAZ’s LCV sales increased 61% y/y to 4,381 units in May and were 19% up y/y in 5mo21 to 19,165 units sold.
113 RUSSIA Country Report July 2021 www.intellinews.com