Page 30 - RusRPTJul21

3.0 Macro Economy 3.1 Macroeconomic overview
Russia's GDP dynamic in 1Q21 was revised from the preliminary -1% dynamic to -0.7% year on year by RosStat statistics agency. If compared to the pre-pandemic 1Q19, the Russian economy has seen growth of 0.7% in the first three months of this year.
As followed by bne IntelliNews, the Russian economy so far in 2021 has made a stronger than expected recovery, while Russia's manufacturing PMI was up to 51.9 in May, its highest level in over a year. April's base sector readings were close to pre-COVID levels.
Now "the new [1Q21 GDP] data paves the way for an upgrade in the 2021 growth estimate that could be higher than the maximum 4% y/y currently expected by the government, the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) and the market," BCS Global Markets commented on June 16.
According to RosStat, changes in the data reflected new updated statistics that have shown better performance in 1Q21 in industrial production, wholesale trade, cargo and passenger transportation.
"Since 1Q21 will be the only period of negative growth this year, the latest data update bodes well for the annual growth estimate, especially if one takes into account that during this and the next quarters, the Russian economy will demonstrate very high y/y growth rates of over 6% due to 2020’s weak base
30 RUSSIA Country Report July 2021 www.intellinews.com