Page 51 - RusRPTJul21

4.5 Labour and income
4.5.1 Labour market, unemployment dynamics
Russia’s labour market further extended its gains in May, as unemployment declined to 4.9% more than projections and real wages accelerated to +6.2% y/y in April (vs. the Bloomberg consensus estimate of +2.3% y/y).
The labour market strength is set to translate into firm consumer demand, as analysts expect the retail sales turnover for May to be up +28.2% y/y (vs. the +26.3% y/y Bloomberg consensus estimate), slightly in the black in seasonally adjusted terms.
Overall unemployment in Russia is now holding at 5.2%, by the end of 2021 it will drop to 4.6-4.7%, which is the pre-crisis level of 2019, Labor and Social Protection Minister Anton Kotyakov said in an interview with TASS at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum in June.
Minsel’khoz and RZD are reportedly planning to charter trains to bring in migrant labourers to meet the seasonal labour needs for the agricultural sector. As of March, companies employing over 250 people with a turnover exceeding RUB2.5bn ($34.625mn). Putin ordered the moratorium on the expulsion of labor migrants in Russia without a legal basis for staying until September 30, giving them more time to apply and sort out their legal status. The agricultural sector is currently forced to bring in labour only using flights, which significantly increases the cost of importing labour. Regional governments have been lobbying the ministry to help on this front because those costs are filtering into food production, inevitably nudging prices higher. Worker shortages are top of mind everywhere — the estimated shortage in Moscow alone is 300,000. In Tatarstan, regional authorities estimate the decline in number of available labour migrants is around 33% and even doubling salaries for jobs in construction, for instance, still isn’t enough to ease the labour shortfalls. One of the other trends over the last year has been the shift in Central Asian migrant laborers’ preferences to go to Kazakhstan where earnings may be lower, but they face fewer problems and risks.
51 RUSSIA Country Report July 2021 www.intellinews.com