Page 69 - RusRPTJul21

6.0 Public Sector 6.1 Budget
Russia’s budget went back into surplus earlier than expected in March and the surplus was RUB312bn ($4.3bn) in May.
Finance Minister Siluanov said MinFin has cut its forecast of 2021 budget deficit from 2.4% to 1% of GDP on June 4. This is hardly news to anyone – according to Minfin, in 4M21, the federal budget was closed with a surplus RUB205bn (c0.2% of GDP). Our estimates put possible budget deficit this year at 0.3% of GDP, but these calculations are based on an assumption that crude oil prices will gradually decline to $55/bbl by 4Q21. In case crude remains at levels of $60/bbl+ throughout the remainder of this year, we are certain that government’s accounts will remain in the black.
The just-unveiled parameters of the 2021-23 federal budget were generally in line with what was previously disclosed in the media.
Revenues are expected to climb to RUB18.8 trillion in 2021, up from RUB17.9 trillion in 2020, and then rise to RUB20.6 trillion in 2022 and RUBR22.3 trillion in 2023.
Expenditures will shrink to R21.5 trillion in 2021, down from R22.6 trillion in 2020. The higher spending this year was due to measures taken to combat the pandemic. Nominal expenditures are then slated to rise to R21.9 trillion in
69 RUSSIA Country Report July 2021 www.intellinews.com