Page 32 - UKRRptMay19

4.4.3 Retail sector dynamics
Retail trade in Ukraine jumped 9% in March y/y, for 7.4% jump for the quarter, compared to last year, the State Statistics Service. Fueling this growth were: a 10.5% y/y growth in salaries in February; a 15% growth y/y in average monthly pensions in March, to $109; and a pickup in consumer confidence, to 65-67 points in January-March, All growth figures are adjusted for inflation -- 8.6% a year in February.
Retail sales surged 13.9% month-on-month in real terms. In January-March, retail trade increased 7.4% in real terms (vs. 6.2% y/y in the first quarter of 2018).
Regionally, the highest retail growth in January-March occurred in the Kyiv (11.7% y/y), Vinnytsia (11.7% y/y) and Lviv (9.7% y/y) regions. It was slowest in the Volyn (0.9% y/y), Chernihiv (2.0% y/y) and Kirovohrad (3.3% y/y) regions.
Retail is being driven by personal income growth (mostly wages), real retail sales surged in March despite higher inflation.Concorde expects real retail trade to increase 6-7% y/y in 2019 (vs. 6.2% y/y in 2018).
32 UKRAINE Country Report May 2019 www.intellinews.com